Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were clear favourites.
Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Oviedo. Valencia had 7 days of rest, Oviedo 4.9 and had to travel 628 km.
Away travel628 kmRest days7 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Valencia63%
Draw23%
Oviedo14%
Valencia63%
Draw22%
Oviedo15%
Valencia61%
Draw24%
Oviedo15%
Valencia56%
Draw25%
Oviedo19%
Valencia65%
Draw21%
Oviedo14%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 32
Team strength
Valencia
Oviedo
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
39
AttackIn forecast
23
52
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaOviedo
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
67%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
7.83
ShotsContext
7.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
32%
On target shareContext
38%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
3.83
58%
Box shareContext
52%
17%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.17
Shots allowedContext
19.17
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.17
4.33
BlocksContext
5.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.67
69%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
355
PassesContext
334
281
Accurate passesContext
270
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.50
FoulsContext
11.33
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
60%
Scored inContext
33%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.30
ShotsContext
7.00
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
3.83
65%
Box shareContext
52%
15%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.10
Shots allowedContext
19.17
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.17
3.50
BlocksContext
5.67
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.67
73%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
409
PassesContext
334
331
Accurate passesContext
270
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.20
FoulsContext
11.33
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel628 km1,426 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 628 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 1,426 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
25Julen Agirrezabala(G)
14José Gayà
4M. Diakhaby
5César Tárrega
20D. Foulquier
7A. Danjuma
8Javi Guerra
22B. Santamaría
11Luis Rioja
10André Almeida
9Hugo Duro
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
12Dani Calvo
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
20L. Dendoncker
5Alberto Reina
18J. Brekalo
9Federico Viñas
10H. Hassan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Oviedo-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Oviedo · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–6 A | L 1–3 H |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.17 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Valencia | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.17 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.83 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 10.00 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.84 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Valencia | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.00 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.84 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.91
Red cards0.22league 0.25
Cards 5+28%league 42%
Fouls21.8league 24.5
Penalties0.22league 0.29
Home wins50%league 48%
Valencia4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W3 May 25A · Las Palmas3–21
- L29 Apr 24A · Barcelona2–41
- L28 Jan 24A · Atletico Madrid0–20
- L1 Oct 23A · Real Betis0–32
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Aug 25H · Real Madrid0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Oviedo6 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Oviedo6 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
