Verona vs AC Milan – 19 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 19 · 14:00 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 32 played WLLLL

0–1Full time

AC Milan 3rd · 63 pts · 32 played WLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Verona had 8 days of rest, AC Milan 7.9 and had to travel 141 km.

Away travel141 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Verona21%

Draw29%

AC Milan50%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.37

Verona15%

Draw21%

AC Milan64%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.05

Verona22%

Draw29%

AC Milan48%

Expected goals 0.83 – 1.35

Verona17%

Draw27%

AC Milan56%

Expected goals 0.71 – 1.53

Verona22%

Draw28%

AC Milan51%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.49

Over 2.5 37% Both score 42% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 76

Team strength

Verona

AC Milan

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

15 AttackIn forecast 72

29 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

AC Milan

0.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.47

1.72 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.84

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

50% Scored inContext 84%

16% Clean sheetsContext 41%

11.09 ShotsContext 13.28

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.41

34% On target shareContext 33%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

55% Box shareContext 69%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.97 Shots allowedContext 10.88

4.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.97 BlocksContext 3.23

2.66 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

60% Save rateContext 82%

41% PossessionIn forecast 53%

329 PassesContext 487

248 Accurate passesContext 428

75% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.99

15.53 FoulsContext 9.72

8.97 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

40% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.80 ShotsContext 13.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

25% On target shareContext 31%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.75

49% Box shareContext 70%

5% ConversionContext 9%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.40 BlocksContext 2.70

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

51% Save rateContext 77%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

342 PassesContext 514

266 Accurate passesContext 455

78% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.97

15.20 FoulsContext 10.10

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel141 km1,315 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	1,315 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

12D. Bradarić 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 2D. Oyegoke

24A. Bernede 7R. Belghali

16G. Orban

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 24Z. Athekame

11C. Pulišić 10Rafael Leão

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
AC Milan+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-10
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.60

AC Milan · Away 2.00points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 9-5-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 0.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	AC Milan
Torino	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A
Fiorentina	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Atalanta	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Genoa	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Bologna	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H
Napoli	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 H
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 HW 3–0 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Inter	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Como	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Points	18 of 93 · 0.58 per game	60 of 93 · 1.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

0 Verona wins0 draws9 AC Milan wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.22 Over 2.567% Both scored56% Clean sheets0% · 44%

28 Dec 2025AC Milan3–0Verona
15 Feb 2025AC Milan1–0Verona
20 Dec 2024Verona0–1AC Milan
17 Mar 2024Verona1–3AC Milan
23 Sep 2023AC Milan1–0Verona
4 Jun 2023AC Milan3–1Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	0.72	1.47
Conceded per game	1.72	0.84
Match goals	2.44	2.31	2.16
Over 1.5	72%	66%
Over 2.5	59%	44%	37%
Over 3.5	25%	19%
Both teams scored	50%	47%	42%
Clean sheets	16%	41%
Failed to score	50%	16%
Games	32	32

	Verona	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	2.30	2.20	2.16
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	37%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	42%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	4.62
Corners conceded	4.45	4.28
Match total	8.35	8.90	8.71
Over 8.5	55% 17/31	55% 16/29
Over 9.5	29% 9/31	38% 11/29
Over 10.5	19% 6/31	31% 9/29
Cards
Cards	2.41	1.63
Opponent cards	1.66	2.03
Match total	4.07	3.66	3.90
Over 3.5	53% 17/32	53% 17/32
Over 4.5	41% 13/32	28% 9/32

	Verona	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	3.89
Corners conceded	3.78	3.56
Match total	8.34	7.45	8.71
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.50
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	4.40	3.60	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 76 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.72

Red cards0.22league 0.19

Cards 5+36%league 35%

Fouls22.6league 24.8

Penalties0.20league 0.29

Home wins42%league 40%

Verona2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W10 Mar 24A · Lecce1–04
D28 May 23H · Empoli1–14

AC Milan12 with this referee

Record10-2-0 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

W8 Dec 25A · Torino3–21
W28 Sep 25H · Napoli2–12
D2 Feb 25H · Inter1–10
D23 Nov 24H · Juventus0–03
W19 Oct 24H · Udinese1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.