Verona vs Bologna – 15 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 16 Thu, Jan 15 · 17:30 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 20th · 13 pts · 19 played WLLDL

2–3Full time

Bologna 9th · 27 pts · 19 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 22). Bologna usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Verona had 4 days of rest, Bologna 5.1 and had to travel 108 km.

Away travel108 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Verona22%

Draw27%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.55

Verona23%

Draw25%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.68

Verona22%

Draw27%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.54

Verona17%

Draw25%

Bologna58%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.74

Verona23%

Draw25%

Bologna52%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69

Over 2.5 45% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 96

Team strength

Verona

Bologna

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

15 AttackIn forecast 35

29 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Bologna

0.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.37

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.05

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

53% Scored inContext 74%

16% Clean sheetsContext 32%

11.32 ShotsContext 12.74

4.16 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

37% On target shareContext 31%

6.47 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

57% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.47

13.26 Shots allowedContext 10.37

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

4.26 BlocksContext 3.00

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.94

65% Save rateContext 74%

39% PossessionIn forecast 55%

317 PassesContext 416

234 Accurate passesContext 342

74% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.86

16.42 FoulsContext 13.68

8.05 Fouls sufferedContext 14.53

2.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.95

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.60 ShotsContext 14.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

32% On target shareContext 33%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.89

55% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.13

15.20 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.10 BlocksContext 2.50

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

67% Save rateContext 73%

40% PossessionIn forecast 52%

321 PassesContext 404

239 Accurate passesContext 328

75% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.85

16.20 FoulsContext 13.30

6.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,150 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel108 km860 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan	5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	108 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,150 km	860 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

12D. Bradarić 24A. Bernede 73Al Musrati 8S. Serdar 36C. Niasse

16G. Orban 9A. Sarr

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 41M. Vitík 2E. Holm

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler

30B. Domínguez 21J. Odgaard 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bologna+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.44

Bologna · Away 1.30points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Bologna
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 1–1 A
Napoli	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Torino	L 0–3 H	D 0–0 H
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 A
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 H
Genoa	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Parma	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Inter	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Como	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Cagliari	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	W 4–0 H
Sassuolo	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Points	13 of 57 · 0.68 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Verona wins2 draws3 Bologna wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 38%

9 Mar 2025Verona1–2Bologna
30 Dec 2024Bologna2–3Verona
23 Feb 2024Bologna2–0Verona
18 Sep 2023Verona0–0Bologna
21 Apr 2023Verona2–1Bologna
21 Aug 2022Bologna1–1Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	0.79	1.37
Conceded per game	1.63	1.05
Match goals	2.42	2.42	2.49
Over 1.5	74%	74%
Over 2.5	58%	42%	45%
Over 3.5	26%	32%
Both teams scored	53%	47%	49%
Clean sheets	16%	32%
Failed to score	47%	26%
Games	19	19

	Verona	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.80	2.49
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.53	4.74
Corners conceded	4.63	4.21
Match total	8.16	8.95	8.77
Over 8.5	47% 9/19	53% 10/19
Over 9.5	37% 7/19	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	21% 4/19	32% 6/19
Cards
Cards	2.47	2.11
Opponent cards	1.63	2.58
Match total	4.10	4.69	4.02
Over 3.5	58% 11/19	74% 14/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	63% 12/19

	Verona	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	4.00
Corners conceded	5.60	5.33
Match total	8.80	9.33	8.77
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.80
Opponent cards	1.10	2.20
Match total	3.60	4.00	4.02
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.87

Red cards0.21league 0.18

Cards 5+40%league 37%

Fouls23.9league 25.8

Penalties0.25league 0.31

Home wins46%league 37%

Verona9 with this referee

Record4-0-5 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W6 Dec 25H · Atalanta3–12
L29 Nov 24A · Cagliari0–12
L29 Oct 24A · Lecce0–14
L17 Mar 24H · AC Milan1–31
L30 Dec 23H · Salernitana0–12

Bologna4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

L13 Apr 25A · Atalanta0–21
W27 Feb 25H · AC Milan2–11
W18 Jan 25H · Monza3–11
L21 Apr 23A · Verona1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.