Verona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Verona38.0%fair odds 2.63
Draw29.2%fair odds 3.42
Cagliari32.7%fair odds 3.05
Expected goals1.24 – 1.13total 2.37
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Verona ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Verona goals, columns Cagliari goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.25
- 1–010.9%9.18
- 0–010.0%9.95
- 0–19.9%10.12
- 2–18.1%12.32
- 1–27.4%13.51
- 2–07.2%13.93
- 0–26.0%16.74
- 2–24.6%21.80
- 3–13.4%29.83
Winning margin
5.7%
Verona by 3+
fair 17.47
11.2%
Verona by 2
fair 8.95
21.1%
Verona by 1
fair 4.73
29.2%
Draw
fair 3.42
19.2%
Cagliari by 1
fair 5.20
9.3%
Cagliari by 2
fair 10.75
4.2%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 23.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Verona goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Cagliari goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verona win | 38.0% | 39.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 29.2% | 27.0% | +2.2 pp |
| Cagliari win | 32.7% | 33.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.2% | 50.9% | -8.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.8% | 55.6% | -6.8 pp |
| Expected goals Verona | 1.24 | 1.42 | -0.18 |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.13 | 1.29 | -0.16 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Verona win38.0%2.63
- Draw29.2%3.42
- Cagliari win32.7%3.05
- Double chance Verona or draw67.3%1.49
- Double chance Verona or Cagliari70.8%1.41
- Double chance Cagliari or draw62.0%1.61
- Draw no bet Verona53.7%1.86
- Draw no bet Cagliari46.3%2.16
Goals
- Over 0.590.0%1.11
- Over 1.569.2%1.45
- Over 2.542.2%2.37
- Over 3.521.5%4.65
- Over 4.59.2%10.86
- Under 1.530.8%3.24
- Under 2.557.8%1.73
- Under 3.578.5%1.27
Both teams to score
- Yes48.8%2.05
- No51.2%1.95
- Yes and over 2.535.0%2.86
- Verona win and yes15.8%6.33
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- Cagliari win and yes13.8%7.23
Team goals
- Verona over 0.571.0%1.41
- Verona over 1.535.1%2.85
- Verona over 2.512.9%7.75
- Cagliari over 0.567.7%1.48
- Cagliari over 1.531.2%3.20
- Cagliari over 2.510.6%9.45
- Verona clean sheet32.3%3.10
- Cagliari clean sheet29.0%3.45
- Verona win to nil22.2%4.50
- Cagliari win to nil18.9%5.29
Handicap
- Verona −1.516.9%5.92
- Verona −2.55.7%17.47
- Cagliari +1.583.1%1.20
- Cagliari +2.594.3%1.06
- Cagliari −1.513.5%7.40
- Verona +1.586.5%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored76
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.632
Over 2.5 called right59.2%
BTTS called right43.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 37.6% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 44.5% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 53.1% | 35.7% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 63.8% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 73.3% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 56 of 76 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6413 | 0.6188 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.2% | 38.8% |
| Favourite won | 44.6% | 46.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 56 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 76 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.