Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Verona had 8 days of rest, Cagliari 7 and had to travel 707 km.
Away travel707 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Verona38%
Draw29%
Cagliari33%
Verona40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Verona38%
Draw29%
Cagliari32%
Verona31%
Draw29%
Cagliari39%
Verona40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico Dionisi
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 29
Team strength
Verona
Cagliari
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
15
AttackIn forecast
31
29
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaCagliari
0.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.84
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
29%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.86
ShotsContext
9.71
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
54%
Box shareContext
62%
2%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.14
Shots allowedContext
14.71
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.43
BlocksContext
4.83
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
71%
Save rateContext
84%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
317
PassesContext
337
237
Accurate passesContext
269
75%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.79
16.43
FoulsContext
13.14
8.71
Fouls sufferedContext
13.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.00
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
55%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.10
BlocksContext
4.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
73%
Save rateContext
77%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
297
PassesContext
334
215
Accurate passesContext
266
72%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.79
17.30
FoulsContext
12.60
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel707 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 396 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
6N. Valentini
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
12D. Bradarić
11J. Akpa Akpro
63R. Gagliardini
8S. Serdar
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
32Zé Pedro
28G. Zappa
3Riyad Idrissi
27J. Liteta
16M. Prati
90M. Folorunsho
2M. Palestra
10G. Gaetano
29G. Borrelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Cagliari+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Cagliari · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Verona wins2 draws2 Cagliari wins
Goals per game0.83 – 0.83
Over 2.517%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 28 Apr 2025Verona0–2Cagliari
- 29 Nov 2024Cagliari1–0Verona
- 1 Apr 2024Cagliari1–1Verona
- 23 Dec 2023Verona2–0Cagliari
- 30 Apr 2022Cagliari1–2Verona
- 30 Nov 2021Verona0–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 1.57 | 2.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Verona | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 1.57 | 2.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 8.50 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 3.86 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Verona | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.34 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico Dionisi Italy · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.78
Red cards0.21league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls27.8league 25.6
Penalties0.21league 0.26
Home wins62%league 38%
Verona5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D4 Jan 25H · Udinese0–03
- L21 Oct 24H · Monza0–33
- L27 Sep 23H · Atalanta0–12
- D4 Jan 23A · Torino1–11
- L9 Jan 22H · Salernitana1–22
Cagliari5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L29 Apr 24A · Genoa0–32
- L21 Jan 24A · Frosinone1–35
- L2 Dec 23A · Lazio0–13
- D13 Feb 22A · Empoli1–12
- L21 Dec 21A · Juventus0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona7 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Cagliari7 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
