Verona vs Genoa – 15 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 15 · 11:30 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 28 played DLLLW

0–2Full time

Genoa 14th · 30 pts · 28 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genoa were slight favourites.

Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genoa. Verona had 6.9 days of rest, Genoa 6.8 and had to travel 198 km.

Away travel198 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Verona25%

Draw29%

Genoa45%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.35

Verona31%

Draw27%

Genoa42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Verona26%

Draw29%

Genoa45%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.32

Verona20%

Draw27%

Genoa52%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.51

Verona26%

Draw27%

Genoa47%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.51

Over 2.5 40% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 52

Team strength

Verona

Genoa

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

15 AttackIn forecast 23

29 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Genoa

0.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

54% Scored inContext 68%

18% Clean sheetsContext 21%

10.61 ShotsContext 11.11

3.85 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.96

35% On target shareContext 36%

6.21 Shots in the boxContext 7.15

57% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.27 OffsidesContext 1.86

13.43 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.65

4.14 BlocksContext 4.80

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.28

62% Save rateContext 68%

40% PossessionIn forecast 47%

326 PassesContext 369

244 Accurate passesContext 297

75% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.82

15.32 FoulsContext 13.04

8.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.61

2.18 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

50% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.20 ShotsContext 11.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

29% On target shareContext 37%

5.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

58% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.60

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.70 BlocksContext 5.60

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

57% Save rateContext 76%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

351 PassesContext 395

268 Accurate passesContext 327

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.89

12.90 FoulsContext 12.30

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km217 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genoa

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel198 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar	6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	198 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	217 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

3M. Frese 21A. Harroui 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 2D. Oyegoke

16G. Orban 18K. Bowie

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

20S. Sabelli 17R. Malinovskyi 32M. Frendrup 10J. Messias 77M. Ellertsson

18C. Ekuban 29L. Colombo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Genoa+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.54points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-8
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.62

Genoa · Away 0.85points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-6
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 1.62

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Genoa
Bologna	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A
Napoli	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	L 2–3 HL 1–2 A
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 HD 3–3 A
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	L 2–3 AL 0–3 H
Torino	L 0–3 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 H
Inter	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H
Como	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Points	18 of 81 · 0.67 per game	27 of 81 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Verona wins2 draws3 Genoa wins

Goals per game1.14 – 1.14 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 29%

29 Nov 2025Genoa2–1Verona
13 Apr 2025Verona0–0Genoa
1 Sep 2024Genoa0–2Verona
7 Apr 2024Verona1–2Genoa
10 Nov 2023Genoa1–0Verona
4 Apr 2022Verona1–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.79	1.21
Conceded per game	1.75	1.43
Match goals	2.54	2.64	2.29
Over 1.5	75%	79%
Over 2.5	64%	61%	40%
Over 3.5	29%	21%
Both teams scored	54%	61%	46%
Clean sheets	18%	21%
Failed to score	46%	32%
Games	28	28

	Verona	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.29
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	3.29
Corners conceded	4.81	5.75
Match total	8.48	9.04	8.75
Over 8.5	56% 15/27	54% 13/24
Over 9.5	33% 9/27	42% 10/24
Over 10.5	22% 6/27	21% 5/24
Cards
Cards	2.29	1.93
Opponent cards	1.71	2.50
Match total	4.00	4.43	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 14/28	79% 22/28
Over 4.5	39% 11/28	43% 12/28

	Verona	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	3.50
Corners conceded	4.78	5.60
Match total	8.56	9.10	8.75
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.90
Match total	3.70	4.30	3.92
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.75

Red cards0.23league 0.18

Cards 5+44%league 35%

Fouls25.0league 25.1

Penalties0.25league 0.30

Home wins40%league 39%

Verona6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

D7 Jan 26A · Napoli2–23
D13 Apr 25H · Genoa0–03
L3 Mar 25A · Juventus0–20
W18 Aug 24H · Napoli3–04
L1 Apr 23A · Juventus0–12

Genoa2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D13 Apr 25A · Verona0–01
L21 Sep 24A · Venezia0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.