Verona vs Napoli – 28 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 28 · 17:00 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 20th · 15 pts · 26 played LLDLL

1–2Full time

Napoli 4th · 50 pts · 26 played LWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were clear favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Napoli. Verona had 7.9 days of rest, Napoli 6.1 and had to travel 575 km.

Away travel575 kmRest days7.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Verona13%

Draw21%

Napoli66%

Expected goals 0.75 – 1.99

Verona15%

Draw21%

Napoli64%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.04

Verona13%

Draw22%

Napoli65%

Expected goals 0.74 – 1.95

Verona9%

Draw18%

Napoli73%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.23

Verona13%

Draw20%

Napoli67%

Expected goals 0.84 – 2.15

Over 2.5 52% Both score 46% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 66

Team strength

Verona

Napoli

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

15 AttackIn forecast 61

29 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Napoli

0.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.77 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.04

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

50% Scored inContext 77%

19% Clean sheetsContext 35%

10.50 ShotsContext 12.73

3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

36% On target shareContext 36%

6.15 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

57% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.59

13.50 Shots allowedContext 10.81

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.12

4.19 BlocksContext 3.12

2.84 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.27

62% Save rateContext 68%

41% PossessionIn forecast 57%

331 PassesContext 525

248 Accurate passesContext 452

75% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.85

15.35 FoulsContext 11.96

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.12

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 1.35

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

40% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.50 ShotsContext 12.10

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

32% On target shareContext 36%

4.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

53% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.25

14.60 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

4.40 BlocksContext 3.20

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

54% Save rateContext 62%

43% PossessionIn forecast 56%

366 PassesContext 541

281 Accurate passesContext 469

77% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.59 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.60 FoulsContext 12.80

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km351 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel575 km1,309 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Feb	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	575 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	351 km	1,309 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

5A. Edmundsson 37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson

12D. Bradarić 11J. Akpa Akpro 63R. Gagliardini 21A. Harroui 2D. Oyegoke

9A. Sarr 18K. Bowie

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Meret(G)

4A. Buongiorno 5Juan Jesus 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 20E. Elmas 21M. Politano

27Alisson Santos 26A. Vergara

19R. Højlund

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Napoli+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.58points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-7
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.58

Napoli · Away 1.57points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 7-1-6
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Napoli
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 3–2 H
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Bologna	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	W 2–0 A
Torino	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A
Atalanta	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Genoa	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Como	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Points	14 of 75 · 0.56 per game	49 of 75 · 1.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Verona wins3 draws5 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.89 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 22%

7 Jan 2026Napoli2–2Verona
12 Jan 2025Napoli2–0Verona
18 Aug 2024Verona3–0Napoli
4 Feb 2024Napoli2–1Verona
21 Oct 2023Verona1–3Napoli
15 Apr 2023Napoli0–0Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.73	1.50
Conceded per game	1.77	1.04
Match goals	2.50	2.54	2.74
Over 1.5	73%	69%
Over 2.5	62%	54%	52%
Over 3.5	31%	31%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	46%
Clean sheets	19%	35%
Failed to score	50%	23%
Games	26	26

	Verona	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.50
Conceded per game	2.10	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.90	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	3.76	4.46
Corners conceded	4.80	3.00
Match total	8.56	7.46	8.72
Over 8.5	60% 15/25	25% 6/24
Over 9.5	36% 9/25	17% 4/24
Over 10.5	24% 6/25	17% 4/24
Cards
Cards	2.23	1.46
Opponent cards	1.62	1.92
Match total	3.85	3.38	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 13/26	38% 10/26
Over 4.5	38% 10/26	15% 4/26

	Verona	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.00
Corners conceded	5.11	2.80
Match total	8.89	6.80	8.72
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.40	1.60
Match total	3.00	3.20	3.94
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.73league 3.76

Red cards0.18league 0.19

Cards 5+55%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 25.3

Penalties0.15league 0.31

Home wins38%league 38%

Verona4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Dec 25A · Fiorentina2–15
L23 Nov 24H · Inter0–52
D21 May 22A · Lazio3–36
W13 Feb 22H · Udinese4–03

Napoli9 with this referee

Record5-1-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

D15 Feb 26H · AS Roma2–21
W9 Mar 25H · Fiorentina2–11
W18 Jan 25A · Atalanta3–22
L8 Dec 24H · Lazio0–12
W29 Oct 24A · AC Milan2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.