VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 25 pts · 14 played
WDLLW
0–0Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 26 pts · 14 played
WDWLW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 53). VfB Stuttgart had 5.8 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 7 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
VfB Stuttgart54%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim23%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim23%
VfB Stuttgart54%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim23%
VfB Stuttgart46%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim23%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 111
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart1899 Hoffenheim
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
70
AttackIn forecast
46
58
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB Stuttgart1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
93%
Scored inContext
86%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
15.57
ShotsContext
12.93
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
35%
On target shareContext
35%
9.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
63%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.93
Shots allowedContext
11.93
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
3.21
BlocksContext
3.64
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.42
72%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
521
PassesContext
463
444
Accurate passesContext
375
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.50
FoulsContext
14.29
12.07
Fouls sufferedContext
9.36
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
13.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
32%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
66%
Box shareContext
72%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.40
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
64%
Save rateContext
82%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
508
PassesContext
484
433
Accurate passesContext
394
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.60
FoulsContext
14.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km956 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 956 km | 541 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 25.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
28N. Nartey
8Tiago Tomás
26D. Undav
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
22A. Prass
6G. Prömel
19T. Lemperle
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 1–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–2 A | W 4–2 A |
| Points | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game | 23 of 36 · 1.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 VfB Stuttgart wins4 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.38
Over 2.563%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets13% · 0%
- 23 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1VfB Stuttgart
- 6 Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 16 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 28 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 27 May 2023VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 24 Jan 20231899 Hoffenheim2–2VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.79 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 3.50 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 3.10 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 10.50 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 3.29 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 10.70 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.30 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 3.91
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 41%
Fouls23.5league 21.2
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins41%league 47%
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record6-1-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L13 Sep 25A · SC Freiburg1–31
- W17 May 25A · RB Leipzig3–20
- L16 Mar 25H · Bayer Leverkusen3–43
- W8 Feb 25A · Borussia Dortmund2–12
- D1 Nov 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–04
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.3.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25A · Bayer Leverkusen2–14
- L1 Dec 24A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W16 Sep 23A · 1.FC Köln3–14
- L2 Sep 22A · Borussia Dortmund0–14
- L6 Aug 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart14 games · scored 25 · conceded 22
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
9
9
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim14 games · scored 29 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
9
6
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
