VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart48.4%fair odds 2.06
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Celta Vigo26.4%fair odds 3.79
Expected goals1.69 – 1.19total 2.88
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.42
- 2–19.5%10.49
- 1–08.9%11.28
- 2–08.0%12.50
- 1–26.7%14.87
- 0–06.2%16.14
- 0–16.1%16.45
- 2–25.7%17.59
- 3–15.4%18.61
- 3–04.5%22.19
Winning margin
11.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 8.84
14.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 6.70
22.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.50
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
15.5%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 6.46
7.4%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 13.47
3.4%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 29.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Celta Vigo goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 48.4% | 47.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.2% | -1.0 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 26.4% | 26.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 51.0% | +4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.4% | 54.4% | +3.0 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.69 | 1.59 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.19 | 1.13 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win48.4%2.06
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Celta Vigo win26.4%3.79
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Celta Vigo74.8%1.34
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw51.6%1.94
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart64.8%1.54
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo35.2%2.84
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.9%1.27
- Over 2.555.0%1.82
- Over 3.532.6%3.06
- Over 4.516.5%6.05
- Under 1.521.1%4.73
- Under 2.545.0%2.22
- Under 3.567.4%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57.4%1.74
- No42.6%2.35
- Yes and over 2.545.5%2.20
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes24.3%4.12
- Draw and yes19.0%5.26
- Celta Vigo win and yes14.1%7.09
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.581.6%1.23
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.550.4%1.99
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.524.0%4.16
- Celta Vigo over 0.569.6%1.44
- Celta Vigo over 1.533.5%2.99
- Celta Vigo over 2.511.9%8.41
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet30.4%3.29
- Celta Vigo clean sheet18.4%5.42
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil24.2%4.14
- Celta Vigo win to nil12.2%8.16
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.526.2%3.81
- VfB Stuttgart −2.511.3%8.84
- Celta Vigo +1.573.8%1.36
- Celta Vigo +2.588.7%1.13
- Celta Vigo −1.510.9%9.20
- VfB Stuttgart +1.589.1%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.601
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.9% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.