VfB Stuttgart vs Celta Vigo – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

2–1Full time

Celta Vigo

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 54). VfB Stuttgart had 6 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4.3 and had to travel 1,568 km.

Away travel1,568 kmRest days6 · 4.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

VfB Stuttgart48%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo26%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.19

VfB Stuttgart47%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

VfB Stuttgart48%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo26%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.19

VfB Stuttgart41%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo33%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.34

VfB Stuttgart47%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

RefereeNick Walsh

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 60

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

Celta Vigo

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

70 AttackIn forecast 36

58 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.60 ShotsContext 12.40

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

69% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

9.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.90 BlocksContext 2.70

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

65% Save rateContext 78%

62% PossessionIn forecast 55%

575 PassesContext 505

508 Accurate passesContext 436

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.70 FoulsContext 10.80

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km262 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,568 km930 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Sep	4.3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,568 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	262 km	930 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 3R. Hendriks 29Finn Jeltsch 22L. Assignon

6A. Stiller 30Chema Andrés

18J. Leweling 11B. El Khannouss 27B. Bouanani

9E. Demirović

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 8Fran Beltrán 39Jones El-Abdellaoui

18Pablo Durán 9Ferran Jutglà 10Iago Aspas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celta Vigo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home No home games yet this season.

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.88
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	VfB Stuttgart	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.83
Conceded per game	1.25	1.17
Match goals	2.50	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	4	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	VfB Stuttgart	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.80
Corners conceded	4.70	4.60
Match total	10.70	10.40	9.18
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	3.90	4.10	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nick Walsh 60 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 4.55

Red cards0.28league 0.00

Cards 5+58%league 55%

Fouls25.6league 25.2

Penalties0.27league 0.18

Home wins43%league 45%

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.