VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 32). VfB Stuttgart had 6.2 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 5.2 and had to travel 533 km.
Away travel533 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw21%
FC St. Pauli16%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli17%
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw21%
FC St. Pauli16%
VfB Stuttgart55%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli21%
VfB Stuttgart61%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli17%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 78
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
FC St. Pauli
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
70
AttackIn forecast
20
58
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartFC St. Pauli
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.33
ShotsContext
13.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
33%
On target shareContext
50%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
64%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
7.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.67
BlocksContext
1.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
73%
Save rateContext
71%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
516
PassesContext
494
449
Accurate passesContext
402
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.33
FoulsContext
14.00
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.40
ShotsContext
12.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
41%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
70%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.90
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.00
BlocksContext
2.50
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
61%
Save rateContext
78%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
568
PassesContext
432
500
Accurate passesContext
354
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.70
FoulsContext
11.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km262 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel533 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 262 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
8Tiago Tomás
9E. Demirović
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
25A. Dźwigała
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FC St. Pauli · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws1 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 May 2025FC St. Pauli0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 21 Dec 2024VfB Stuttgart0–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| VfB Stuttgart | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 5.67 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.67 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 6.90 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.33
Red cards0.18league 0.37
Cards 5+49%league 52%
Fouls23.3league 22.8
Penalties0.15league 0.48
Home wins35%league 41%
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W15 Jan 25H · RB Leipzig2–12
- W16 Mar 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–00
- L11 Feb 23A · SC Freiburg1–23
- L5 Feb 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–30
- W11 Dec 21A · VfL Wolfsburg2–02
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli3 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
7
5
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
