VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
12th · 9 pts · 5 played
WLLWW
4–1Full time
Maccabi Tel Aviv
35th · 1 pts · 5 played
DLLLL
VfB Stuttgart75.6%fair odds 1.32
Draw15.7%fair odds 6.35
Maccabi Tel Aviv8.7%fair odds 11.55
Expected goals2.56 – 0.77total 3.33
Likeliest score2–011.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Maccabi Tel Aviv → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Maccabi Tel Aviv goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%8.53
- 3–010.0%10.00
- 2–19.0%11.07
- 1–08.8%11.37
- 3–17.7%12.98
- 1–17.4%13.44
- 4–06.4%15.64
- 4–14.9%20.29
- 0–04.0%25.27
- 2–23.5%28.71
Winning margin
32.7%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 3.06
21.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 4.63
21.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.69
15.7%
Draw
fair 6.35
6.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 1
fair 16.21
2.0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 2
fair 50.99
0.5%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 3+
fair 189.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 75.6% | 74.1% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 15.7% | 16.6% | -0.9 pp |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 8.7% | 9.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 62.5% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 49.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.56 | 2.46 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.77 | 0.77 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win75.6%1.32
- Draw15.7%6.35
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win8.7%11.55
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw91.3%1.09
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Maccabi Tel Aviv84.3%1.19
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw24.4%4.10
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart89.7%1.11
- Draw no bet Maccabi Tel Aviv10.3%9.73
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.9%1.18
- Over 2.564.6%1.55
- Over 3.542.6%2.35
- Over 4.524.3%4.12
- Under 1.515.1%6.61
- Under 2.535.4%2.83
- Under 3.557.4%1.74
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.00
- No50.1%2.00
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes33.3%3.00
- Draw and yes11.8%8.48
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win and yes4.9%20.54
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.592.3%1.08
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.572.4%1.38
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.547.1%2.12
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 0.553.7%1.86
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 1.518.1%5.53
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 2.54.3%23.09
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet46.3%2.16
- Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet7.7%12.91
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil42.3%2.36
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win to nil3.8%26.41
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.554.3%1.84
- VfB Stuttgart −2.532.7%3.06
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +1.545.7%2.19
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +2.567.3%1.48
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.52.5%40.18
- VfB Stuttgart +1.597.5%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored90
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right51.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.6% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.7% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 34 | 54.6% | 73.5% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 72 of 90 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5627 | 0.5532 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 56.9% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 72 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 90 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.