UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 11 · 17:45 MHPArena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 12th · 9 pts · 5 played
4–1Full time
Maccabi Tel Aviv 35th · 1 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 18). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. VfB Stuttgart had 5.1 days of rest, Maccabi Tel Aviv 13.9 and had to travel.

Rest days5.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
VfB Stuttgart76%
Draw16%
Maccabi Tel Aviv9%
Expected goals 2.56 – 0.77
VfB Stuttgart73%
Draw17%
Maccabi Tel Aviv9%
Expected goals 2.39 – 0.75
VfB Stuttgart75%
Draw16%
Maccabi Tel Aviv9%
Expected goals 2.49 – 0.75
VfB Stuttgart69%
Draw19%
Maccabi Tel Aviv12%
Expected goals 2.28 – 0.86
VfB Stuttgart74%
Draw17%
Maccabi Tel Aviv9%
Expected goals 2.46 – 0.77
Over 2.5 65% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

RefereeMarian Barbu
  • Cards per match 3.2
  • Penalties per match 0.32
  • Matches 19

Team strength

VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel Aviv
63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 19
70 AttackIn forecast 19
58 DefenceIn forecast 20
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel Aviv
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.20
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.80
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.08
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
60% Scored inContext 20%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
18.00 ShotsContext 8.60
5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25
31% On target shareContext 30%
12.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.20
71% Box shareContext 63%
9% ConversionContext 2%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50
11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
3.60 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20
75% Save rateContext 53%
60% PossessionIn forecast 41%
495 PassesContext 354
426 Accurate passesContext 295
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.48
13.20 FoulsContext 12.60
14.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.08
+0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.14
80% Scored inContext 40%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.70 ShotsContext 9.71
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
34% On target shareContext 38%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20
68% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 6%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.67
13.20 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.90 BlocksContext 3.20
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
68% Save rateContext 54%
58% PossessionIn forecast 45%
492 PassesContext 354
414 Accurate passesContext 295
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.48
11.90 FoulsContext 12.71
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,948 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart Maccabi Tel Aviv
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,948 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 40 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one342

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt 3R. Hendriks 29Finn Jeltsch 22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
10C. Führich 8Tiago Tomás 45L. Jovanović
26D. Undav
+13 more reported missing outside this XI
Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI
5-4-1
90R. Mishpati(G)
3R. Revivo 4Heitor 5M. Camara 41I. Ben Hamo 21N. Ben Harush
29Hélio Varela 36I. Shahar 30I. Noy 10K. Andrade
34S. Abu Farkhi
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Maccabi Tel Aviv Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • VfB Stuttgart+0.8 pp
  • Draw-0.5 pp
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.50
Maccabi Tel Aviv · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-1-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel AvivForecast
Scored per game 1.600.20
Conceded per game 0.802.80
Match goals 2.403.00 3.33
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 40%60% 65%
Over 3.5 20%40%
Both teams scored 20%20% 50%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 40%80%
Games55
VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel AvivForecast
Scored per game 1.900.20
Conceded per game 1.702.80
Match goals 3.603.00 3.33
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%60% 65%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 50%20% 50%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 20%80%
Games105

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel AvivLeague
Corners
Corners won6.403.00
Corners conceded2.805.25
Match total9.208.259.04
Over 8.560% 3/550% 2/4
Over 9.560% 3/550% 2/4
Over 10.540% 2/525% 1/4
Cards
Cards2.402.20
Opponent cards3.601.60
Match total6.003.804.29
Over 3.580% 4/560% 3/5
Over 4.560% 3/520% 1/5
VfB StuttgartMaccabi Tel AvivLeague
Corners
Corners won4.904.17
Corners conceded3.605.67
Match total8.509.849.04
Over 8.550% 5/1067% 4/6
Over 9.540% 4/1067% 4/6
Over 10.510% 1/1050% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.602.00
Opponent cards2.702.20
Match total5.304.204.29
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marian Barbu 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.11league 4.11
Red cards0.05league 0.19
Cards 5+21%league 43%
Fouls25.1league 24.6
Penalties0.32league 0.38
Home wins26%league 51%
VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

Maccabi Tel Aviv

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart5 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv5 games · scored 1 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
3 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
1 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
2 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 5 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
7 6 76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2 2 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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