VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
12th · 8 pts · 8 played
LLLLW
2–3Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
8th · 13 pts · 8 played
LDLWW
Our take
VfL Wolfsburg were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. VfL Wolfsburg had 8.1 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 8.1 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg44%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim31%
VfL Wolfsburg42%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim31%
VfL Wolfsburg43%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim31%
VfL Wolfsburg36%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
VfL Wolfsburg43%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 50
Team strength
VfL Wolfsburg1899 Hoffenheim
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
50
AttackIn forecast
46
42
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL Wolfsburg1899 Hoffenheim
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
63%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.88
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
39%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
60%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.88
Shots allowedContext
10.75
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.25
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
394
PassesContext
435
316
Accurate passesContext
350
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.25
FoulsContext
15.00
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.63
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
39%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
58%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.38
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.80
BlocksContext
3.20
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
397
PassesContext
422
318
Accurate passesContext
337
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.50
FoulsContext
13.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km272 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel377 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 272 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
14J. Seelt
26S. Kumbedi
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
32M. Svanberg
24C. Eriksen
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
34V. Coufal
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.75
Over 2.588%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets13% · 0%
- 9 May 2025VfL Wolfsburg2–21899 Hoffenheim
- 11 Jan 20251899 Hoffenheim0–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 4 Feb 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–21899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Sep 20231899 Hoffenheim3–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 13 May 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 12 Nov 20221899 Hoffenheim1–2VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.88 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 11.76 | 12.00 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 3.38 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 11.20 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.90 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.20
Red cards0.16league 0.23
Cards 5+50%league 43%
Fouls22.0league 22.5
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins40%league 43%
VfL Wolfsburg7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L18 May 24H · FSV Mainz 051–32
- W27 Apr 24A · SC Freiburg2–12
- W30 Sep 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–01
- W25 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln2–02
- W12 Feb 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–02
1899 Hoffenheim10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- D3 May 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–40
- W16 Feb 25A · Werder Bremen3–13
- W23 Nov 24H · RB Leipzig4–32
- D19 Dec 23H · SV Darmstadt 983–32
- L4 Nov 23H · Bayer Leverkusen2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg8 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim8 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
