VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
14th · 8 pts · 10 played
LLWLL
1–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 20 pts · 10 played
WWWLW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 41). VfL Wolfsburg had 14.8 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 14 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg20%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen57%
VfL Wolfsburg21%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
VfL Wolfsburg20%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen57%
VfL Wolfsburg15%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen65%
VfL Wolfsburg21%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 55
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgBayer Leverkusen
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
50
AttackIn forecast
87
42
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgBayer Leverkusen
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
58%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.90
BlocksContext
2.78
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
67%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
399
PassesContext
603
320
Accurate passesContext
537
80%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.01
10.80
FoulsContext
9.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
58%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.90
BlocksContext
3.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
399
PassesContext
587
320
Accurate passesContext
526
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.80
FoulsContext
9.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Nov | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
14J. Seelt
3D. Vavro
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
31Y. Gerhardt
9M. Amoura
10L. Majer
39P. Wimmer
17D. Pejčinović
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
30I. Maza
7J. Hofmann
19E. Poku
10M. Tillman
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.20
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 VfL Wolfsburg wins3 draws4 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 22 Sep 2024Bayer Leverkusen4–3VfL Wolfsburg
- 10 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 21 Oct 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 16 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 22 Oct 2022Bayer Leverkusen2–2VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.80 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.80 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.50 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.40 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.00 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.80 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 4.12
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 43%
Fouls23.0league 22.2
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins47%league 45%
VfL Wolfsburg9 with this referee
Record5-3-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D8 Mar 25H · FC St. Pauli1–11
- W4 May 24H · SV Darmstadt 983–00
- W16 Dec 23A · SV Darmstadt 981–01
- W25 Nov 23H · RB Leipzig2–14
- W29 Oct 22H · VfL Bochum4–01
Bayer Leverkusen4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D9 Nov 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- D5 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–22
- W8 Apr 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–11
- D7 Nov 21A · Hertha BSC1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
5
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
