VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 28 played
LLDLL
1–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 39 pts · 28 played
WDWLD
VfL Wolfsburg30.6%fair odds 3.27
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.13
Eintracht Frankfurt45.3%fair odds 2.21
Expected goals1.42 – 1.77total 3.19
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.19
- 1–29.1%10.93
- 2–17.4%13.58
- 0–16.7%14.91
- 2–26.5%15.35
- 0–26.4%15.58
- 1–35.4%18.53
- 1–05.3%18.90
- 0–04.6%21.53
- 2–04.2%24.04
Winning margin
5.1%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 19.56
9.0%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 11.16
16.5%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 6.07
24.2%
Draw
fair 4.13
20.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.85
13.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 7.23
10.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 9.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 30.6% | 30.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 25.3% | -1.1 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 45.3% | 43.7% | +1.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 57.2% | +4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 63.6% | 60.1% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 1.42 | 1.34 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.77 | 1.63 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfL Wolfsburg win30.6%3.27
- Draw24.2%4.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt win45.3%2.21
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw54.7%1.83
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or Eintracht Frankfurt75.8%1.32
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw69.4%1.44
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg40.3%2.48
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt59.7%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.4%1.20
- Over 2.561.9%1.62
- Over 3.539.6%2.52
- Over 4.521.8%4.58
- Under 1.516.6%6.01
- Under 2.538.1%2.62
- Under 3.560.4%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes63.6%1.57
- No36.4%2.74
- Yes and over 2.552.7%1.90
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes18.2%5.50
- Draw and yes19.5%5.12
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes25.8%3.87
Team goals
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.575.9%1.32
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.541.7%2.40
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.517.3%5.80
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.583.0%1.21
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.552.8%1.89
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.526.1%3.83
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet17.0%5.87
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet24.1%4.16
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil12.4%8.07
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil19.4%5.15
Handicap
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.514.1%7.10
- VfL Wolfsburg −2.55.1%19.56
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.585.9%1.16
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.594.9%1.05
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.524.6%4.06
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.575.4%1.33
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored253
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right60.9%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.3% | 35.3% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 55.2% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.9% | 77.3% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 206 of 253 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5540 | 0.5512 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.3% | 56.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 206 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 253 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.