VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 28 played
LLDLL
1–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 39 pts · 28 played
WDWLD
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Eintracht Frankfurt. VfL Wolfsburg had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 5.9 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg31%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
VfL Wolfsburg33%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt40%
VfL Wolfsburg31%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
VfL Wolfsburg24%
Draw23%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
VfL Wolfsburg31%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 32
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgEintracht Frankfurt
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
54
42
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgEintracht Frankfurt
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
79%
Scored inContext
89%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.50
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
61%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.76
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.07
Shots allowedContext
11.75
5.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.19
BlocksContext
2.85
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
63%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
399
PassesContext
498
317
Accurate passesContext
420
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.25
FoulsContext
9.61
8.96
Fouls sufferedContext
9.68
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
2.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
32%
On target shareContext
41%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
59%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
17.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.10
BlocksContext
3.67
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
64%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
361
PassesContext
543
277
Accurate passesContext
478
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.80
FoulsContext
8.40
7.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 608 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
6J. Belocian
15M. Jenz
3D. Vavro
25A. Zehnter
5Vinicius Souza
24C. Eriksen
21J. Mæhle
9M. Amoura
19J. Lindstrøm
39P. Wimmer
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
21N. Brown
6O. Højlund
16H. Larsson
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
25A. Kalimuendo
9J. Burkardt
8F. Chaïbi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-9
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.07
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.07points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-5
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 2.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Points | 20 of 81 · 0.74 per game | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins5 draws1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 2 Feb 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 14 Sep 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Feb 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 30 Sep 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 5 Mar 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.61 | 3.75 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 64% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 68% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 11% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.56 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 20/27 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 17/27 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 14/27 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 3.86 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.20 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.13 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.75
Red cards0.31league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls20.7league 20.5
Penalties0.50league 0.36
Home wins44%league 44%
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Feb 26H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- D22 Feb 25H · VfL Bochum1–12
- W8 Dec 24H · FSV Mainz 054–33
- L16 Mar 24H · FC Augsburg1–32
- D20 Jan 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–11
Eintracht Frankfurt3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W30 Aug 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- W13 Apr 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–01
- L3 Feb 24A · 1.FC Köln0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg28 games · scored 38 · conceded 63
8
6
0-15
7
9
16-30
5
9
31-45
6
9
46-60
7
12
61-75
5
18
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt28 games · scored 52 · conceded 53
4
8
0-15
10
7
16-30
9
6
31-45
10
7
46-60
8
8
61-75
11
17
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 25
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
1
8
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
