Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Villarreal
3rd · 69 pts · 37 played
WWDLL
5–1Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 69 pts · 37 played
WWLWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Villarreal had 7.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 7.1 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal36%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid37%
Villarreal34%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid39%
Villarreal36%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid37%
Villarreal29%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid44%
Villarreal37%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
RefereeM. Sesma
Team strength
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
76
AttackIn forecast
82
73
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
84%
Scored inContext
86%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.68
ShotsContext
12.95
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.03
38%
On target shareContext
39%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.62
OffsidesContext
2.52
12.24
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.77
4.06
BlocksContext
2.83
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
497
332
Accurate passesContext
425
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.68
FoulsContext
10.81
11.78
Fouls sufferedContext
9.59
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.80
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
29%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
70%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.30
BlocksContext
3.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
75%
Save rateContext
83%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
425
PassesContext
426
359
Accurate passesContext
355
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.60
FoulsContext
10.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel311 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 634 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 83.8 | 87 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
4Rafa Marín
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
18P. Gueye
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
17D. Hancko
15C. Lenglet
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
21O. Vargas
6Koke
10Álex Baena
22A. Lookman
7A. Griezmann
20G. Simeone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.39points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-3
- Scored
- 2.39
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.28points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-7
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H |
| Sevilla | L 2–3 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Girona | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 69 of 108 · 1.92 per game | 66 of 108 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Villarreal wins5 draws4 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 13 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid2–0Villarreal
- 25 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Villarreal
- 19 Aug 2024Villarreal2–2Atletico Madrid
- 1 Apr 2024Villarreal1–2Atletico Madrid
- 12 Nov 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Villarreal
- 4 Jun 2023Villarreal2–2Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 2.70 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 49% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 51% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 14% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 8.97 | 10.53 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 18/33 | 75% 27/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 13/33 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 10/33 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.40 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 22/37 | 62% 23/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 16/37 | 41% 15/37 | |
| Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 10.11 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Villarreal37 games · scored 67 · conceded 45
9
3
0-15
11
5
16-30
15
9
31-45
12
9
46-60
10
8
61-75
10
11
76-90
Atletico Madrid37 games · scored 61 · conceded 39
13
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
7
31-45
8
3
46-60
11
8
61-75
14
10
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
