Villarreal vs Celta Vigo – 26 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 26 · 20:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 3rd · 62 pts · 32 played DWLWD

2–1Full time

Celta Vigo 6th · 44 pts · 32 played DLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 57). Villarreal had 3 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4 and had to travel 766 km.

Away travel766 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Villarreal49%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo24%

Expected goals 1.51 – 0.97

Villarreal51%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Villarreal49%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo24%

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.95

Villarreal42%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo29%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.09

Villarreal51%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo23%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.05

Over 2.5 45% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 19

Team strength

Villarreal

Celta Vigo

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

76 AttackIn forecast 36

73 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Celta Vigo

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.16 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.28

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

84% Scored inContext 81%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.75 ShotsContext 10.19

4.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.06

38% On target shareContext 40%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

69% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 14%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.61

12.19 Shots allowedContext 11.66

3.87 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

4.17 BlocksContext 3.33

2.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

70% Save rateContext 72%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

391 PassesContext 493

321 Accurate passesContext 425

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.81

11.69 FoulsContext 11.31

11.84 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 8.60

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

39% On target shareContext 45%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

73% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.70 BlocksContext 3.33

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

78% Save rateContext 57%

42% PossessionIn forecast 50%

361 PassesContext 479

288 Accurate passesContext 412

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.65

10.70 FoulsContext 13.50

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,096 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel766 km1,812 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr	4La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	766 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,096 km	1,812 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.7	6.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Arnau Tenas(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 4Rafa Marín 3A. Freeman

20Alberto Moleiro 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 19N. Pépé

9G. Mikautadze 7Gerard Moreno

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 29Yoel Lago 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 3Óscar Mingueza

23Hugo Álvarez 18Pablo Durán

7Borja Iglesias

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Celta Vigo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 2.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 12-1-2
Scored: 2.27
Conceded: 0.87

Celta Vigo · Away 1.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 7-6-3
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.06

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Celta Vigo
Oviedo	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 0–3 HD 0–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Girona	L 0–1 AW 5–0 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Alaves	D 1–1 AW 3–1 H	L 3–4 HW 1–0 A
Elche	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A	L 1–2 A
Barcelona	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 AL 2–4 H
Valencia	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 3–2 AW 4–1 H
Levante	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Getafe	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Espanyol	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Osasuna	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Real Madrid	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HW 2–0 A
Real Betis	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 4–0 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Points	61 of 93 · 1.97 per game	43 of 93 · 1.39 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Villarreal wins3 draws3 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.90 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

31 Aug 2025Celta Vigo1–1Villarreal
23 Apr 2025Celta Vigo3–0Villarreal
26 Aug 2024Villarreal4–3Celta Vigo
5 May 2024Celta Vigo3–2Villarreal
20 Dec 2023Villarreal3–2Celta Vigo
30 Apr 2023Villarreal3–1Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.38
Conceded per game	1.16	1.28
Match goals	2.94	2.66	2.48
Over 1.5	91%	81%
Over 2.5	56%	44%	45%
Over 3.5	34%	22%
Both teams scored	59%	63%	49%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	16%	19%
Games	32	32

	Villarreal	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	2.00
Match goals	2.70	3.20	2.48
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.82	4.03
Corners conceded	5.04	4.45
Match total	8.86	8.48	9.59
Over 8.5	46% 13/28	42% 13/31
Over 9.5	39% 11/28	29% 9/31
Over 10.5	32% 9/28	23% 7/31
Cards
Cards	2.31	1.78
Opponent cards	2.09	2.47
Match total	4.40	4.25	4.53
Over 3.5	66% 21/32	59% 19/32
Over 4.5	47% 15/32	38% 12/32

	Villarreal	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	3.67
Corners conceded	5.56	3.17
Match total	8.78	6.84	9.59
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	17% 1/6
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/6
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	4.30	4.30	4.53
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.74league 4.26

Red cards0.53league 0.28

Cards 5+58%league 47%

Fouls25.4league 24.5

Penalties0.47league 0.36

Home wins37%league 49%

Villarreal4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D13 Mar 26A · Alaves1–12
D31 Aug 25A · Celta Vigo1–11
W24 Aug 25H · Girona5–01
W3 May 25H · Osasuna4–24

Celta Vigo3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W7 Dec 25A · Real Madrid2–01
W2 Nov 25A · Levante2–13
D31 Aug 25H · Villarreal1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.