Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 50). Villarreal had 9.2 days of rest, Espanyol 10 and had to travel 242 km.
Away travel242 kmRest days9.2 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
Villarreal53%
Draw27%
Espanyol21%
Villarreal54%
Draw25%
Espanyol21%
Villarreal52%
Draw27%
Espanyol21%
Villarreal45%
Draw28%
Espanyol26%
Villarreal55%
Draw25%
Espanyol21%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 13
Team strength
Villarreal
Espanyol
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
76
AttackIn forecast
36
73
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealEspanyol
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
81%
Scored inContext
77%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.73
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
38%
On target shareContext
34%
8.19
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
68%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
3.46
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.52
Shots allowedContext
11.91
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
4.53
BlocksContext
3.62
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
403
PassesContext
348
335
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.86
FoulsContext
13.32
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.45
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
66%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.90
BlocksContext
3.89
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
54%
Save rateContext
72%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
369
PassesContext
326
296
Accurate passesContext
249
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.70
FoulsContext
13.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km690 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel242 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.2La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 10La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 242 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 690 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
18P. Gueye
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
19N. Pépé
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
12José Salinas
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
8Edu Expósito
11Pere Milla
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Espanyol+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-2
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 0.82
Espanyol · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Getafe | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Valencia | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 39 of 60 · 1.95 per game | 33 of 60 · 1.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Villarreal wins1 draws0 Espanyol wins
Goals per game2.14 – 0.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 8 Nov 2025Espanyol0–2Villarreal
- 27 Apr 2025Villarreal1–0Espanyol
- 26 Sep 2024Espanyol1–2Villarreal
- 27 Apr 2023Villarreal4–2Espanyol
- 9 Nov 2022Espanyol0–1Villarreal
- 27 Feb 2022Villarreal5–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.41 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 45% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 23% | |
| Games | 21 | 22 |
| Villarreal | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.73 | 8.86 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 7/18 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.54 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Villarreal | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.60 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.15
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+46%league 44%
Fouls25.5league 24.6
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins77%league 47%
VillarrealNo previous matches with this referee.
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal21 games · scored 39 · conceded 23
4
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
5
46-60
8
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Espanyol22 games · scored 26 · conceded 27
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
9
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
7
5
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
