Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Sociedad. Villarreal had 7 days of rest, Real Sociedad 5 and had to travel 406 km.
Away travel406 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal45%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad27%
Villarreal49%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad25%
Villarreal45%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad27%
Villarreal38%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad33%
Villarreal47%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad27%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 40
Team strength
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
77
AttackIn forecast
62
70
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealReal Sociedad
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
86%
Scored inContext
89%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
11.71
ShotsContext
12.54
4.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
38%
On target shareContext
38%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
69%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.90
OffsidesContext
2.64
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
4.04
BlocksContext
3.48
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
68%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
391
PassesContext
429
322
Accurate passesContext
355
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.04
FoulsContext
14.39
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.40
ShotsContext
10.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
42%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
67%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
20%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.10
BlocksContext
3.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
64%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
368
PassesContext
409
298
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.70
FoulsContext
13.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km777 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel406 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 406 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 777 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
7Barrenetxea
10Mikel Oyarzabal
23Brais Méndez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-2
- Scored
- 2.21
- Conceded
- 0.86
Real Sociedad · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 52 of 81 · 1.93 per game | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Villarreal wins2 draws4 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 30 Nov 2025Real Sociedad2–3Villarreal
- 20 Apr 2025Villarreal2–2Real Sociedad
- 13 Jan 2025Real Sociedad1–0Villarreal
- 23 Feb 2024Real Sociedad1–3Villarreal
- 9 Dec 2023Villarreal0–3Real Sociedad
- 2 Apr 2023Villarreal2–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.04 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 61% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 82% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 11% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.84 | 5.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 10.08 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 10/25 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.39 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 14/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.40 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.60 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 4.21
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.37
Home wins38%league 48%
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W21 Apr 24A · Almeria2–14
- D20 Jan 24H · Mallorca1–13
- L13 Aug 23H · Real Betis1–21
Real Sociedad5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L12 Dec 25H · Girona1–21
- W18 May 25H · Girona3–21
- W4 May 24H · Las Palmas2–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Sevilla2–12
- D19 Aug 23H · Celta Vigo1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal28 games · scored 51 · conceded 33
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
12
5
31-45
12
6
46-60
8
5
61-75
8
10
76-90
Real Sociedad28 games · scored 43 · conceded 42
2
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
10
10
31-45
8
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
10
11
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
