Villarreal vs Sevilla

La Liga Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 3 · 16:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

VS— Compare

Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played WWLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel584 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Villarreal—%

Draw—%

Sevilla—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 19 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Sevilla 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Villarreal

Sevilla

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

76 AttackIn forecast 48

73 DefenceIn forecast 57

79 Form indexContext 67

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Sevilla

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

67% Scored inContext 100%

11% Clean sheetsContext 22%

16.33 ShotsContext 11.78

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

39% On target shareContext 37%

11.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

68% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.67

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63

5.14 BlocksContext 3.29

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

77% Save rateContext 60%

60% PossessionIn forecast 41%

573 PassesContext 344

510 Accurate passesContext 267

89% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.11 FoulsContext 14.67

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.50 ShotsContext 11.50

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

36% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

67% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.90 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.60

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

4.63 BlocksContext 3.00

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

72% Save rateContext 60%

59% PossessionIn forecast 42%

560 PassesContext 353

493 Accurate passesContext 278

88% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.40 FoulsContext 15.20

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km690 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Sevilla WWLDL

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel584 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec	14La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	584 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	690 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias

24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé

20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas

9R. Ure

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Sevilla · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Sevilla
Real Madrid	L 0–1 A	L 1–4 A
Levante	W 3–1 H	D 3–3 A
Deportivo La Coruna	L 2–3 H	W 1–0 A
Atletico Madrid	D 2–2 A	L 1–3 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Villarreal wins3 draws3 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

13 May 2026Villarreal2–3Sevilla
23 Sep 2025Sevilla1–2Villarreal
25 May 2025Villarreal4–2Sevilla
23 Aug 2024Sevilla1–2Villarreal
11 May 2024Villarreal3–2Sevilla
3 Dec 2023Sevilla1–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Sevilla
Scored per game	1.44	1.56
Conceded per game	1.44	1.78
Match goals	2.89	3.33
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	67%	67%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	67%	78%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	9	9

	Villarreal	Sevilla
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.70
Match goals	3.10	3.10
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	70%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	3.00
Corners conceded	4.44	3.56
Match total	11.55	6.56	9.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.78	3.33
Opponent cards	3.00	2.11
Match total	4.78	5.44	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Villarreal	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.00
Corners conceded	4.70	3.60
Match total	11.20	6.60	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	3.10
Opponent cards	2.90	2.00
Match total	4.60	5.10	4.73
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.