Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 39). Werder Bremen had 6 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 6.9 and had to travel 270 km.
Away travel270 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen54%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln22%
Werder Bremen53%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln22%
Werder Bremen54%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln22%
Werder Bremen46%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln28%
Werder Bremen53%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln22%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 69
Team strength
Werder Bremen
1.FC Köln
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
56
AttackIn forecast
36
45
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder Bremen1.FC Köln
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.82
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
73%
Scored inContext
91%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.27
ShotsContext
12.55
4.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
62%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.82
Shots allowedContext
14.27
6.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.18
BlocksContext
4.55
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
65%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
464
PassesContext
402
382
Accurate passesContext
330
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.27
FoulsContext
9.09
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.73
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
37%
On target shareContext
38%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
65%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.60
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.20
BlocksContext
3.80
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
68%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
467
PassesContext
403
385
Accurate passesContext
331
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.30
FoulsContext
9.10
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km620 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel270 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 620 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
9K. Topp
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
3D. Heintz
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
29J. Thielmann
13S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
16J. Kamiński
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
1.FC Köln · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–3 H | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–4 A | L 3–4 H |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins1 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 16 Feb 20241.FC Köln0–1Werder Bremen
- 23 Sep 2023Werder Bremen2–11.FC Köln
- 20 May 2023Werder Bremen1–11.FC Köln
- 21 Jan 20231.FC Köln7–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 3.55 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 73% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Werder Bremen | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.71 | 6.64 | |
| Match total | 13.28 | 10.91 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 7/7 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.09 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 3.91 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Werder Bremen | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.71 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 13.28 | 11.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 7/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.95
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+32%league 40%
Fouls24.1league 21.7
Penalties0.22league 0.35
Home wins49%league 44%
Werder Bremen9 with this referee
Record1-1-7
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds2
- D10 May 25H · RB Leipzig0–01
- L3 Nov 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–44
- L21 Sep 24H · Bayern München0–50
- L2 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart0–20
- W23 Sep 23H · 1.FC Köln2–12
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Sep 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–33
- L23 Sep 23A · Werder Bremen1–21
- D18 Sep 22A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W19 Dec 21H · VfB Stuttgart1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen11 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
6
3
76-90
1.FC Köln11 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
10
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
