Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
13th · 17 pts · 16 played
DLLDL
3–3Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 26 pts · 17 played
LWDDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 47). Werder Bremen had 3 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 3.1 and had to travel 329 km.
Away travel329 kmRest days3 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Werder Bremen36%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt38%
Werder Bremen36%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
Werder Bremen36%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt38%
Werder Bremen29%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
Werder Bremen36%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 54
Team strength
Werder BremenEintracht Frankfurt
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
56
AttackIn forecast
54
45
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenEintracht Frankfurt
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.12
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
63%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.56
ShotsContext
12.24
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.53
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.41
57%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.44
Shots allowedContext
11.88
6.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
4.06
BlocksContext
2.47
4.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
66%
Save rateContext
54%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
450
PassesContext
486
369
Accurate passesContext
404
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.19
FoulsContext
10.24
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
9.41
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.30
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
39%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
54%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.75
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.40
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
53%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
447
PassesContext
438
367
Accurate passesContext
353
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.90
FoulsContext
10.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel329 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan | 3.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 329 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 305 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
23I. Schmidt
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
3Y. Sugawara
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
13R. Kristensen
15E. Skhiri
18M. Dahoud
21N. Brown
8F. Chaïbi
20R. Doan
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | L 2–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 0–6 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–0 A | W 6–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game | 20 of 45 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins2 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.29 – 2.00
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 23 Aug 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–1Werder Bremen
- 5 Apr 2025Werder Bremen2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 23 Nov 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Apr 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–1Werder Bremen
- 12 Nov 2023Werder Bremen2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 Feb 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.94 | 2.12 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 4.18 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 65% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 59% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 12% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 3.73 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 8.26 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.71 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 12.71 | 9.38 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.77
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 21.1
Penalties0.35league 0.33
Home wins31%league 46%
Werder Bremen6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L19 Jan 25H · FC Augsburg0–21
- W15 Sep 24A · FSV Mainz 052–12
- W3 Feb 24A · FSV Mainz 051–03
- D12 Nov 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21
- L26 Aug 23A · SC Freiburg0–12
Eintracht Frankfurt6 with this referee
Record1-4-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W17 May 25A · SC Freiburg3–14
- D2 Feb 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–11
- L15 Dec 24A · RB Leipzig1–23
- D6 Oct 24H · Bayern München3–31
- D12 Nov 23A · Werder Bremen2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen16 games · scored 18 · conceded 31
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
8
61-75
7
9
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt17 games · scored 35 · conceded 36
3
7
0-15
7
3
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
11
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
