Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
12th · 32 pts · 31 played
WLLWD
1–3Full time
FC Augsburg
9th · 37 pts · 31 played
LDDWD
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 6 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 543 km.
Away travel543 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen48%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg28%
Werder Bremen44%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg29%
Werder Bremen48%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg28%
Werder Bremen40%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg35%
Werder Bremen46%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg29%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 125
Team strength
Werder BremenFC Augsburg
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
56
AttackIn forecast
72
45
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenFC Augsburg
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
65%
Scored inContext
74%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
12.90
ShotsContext
12.61
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.28
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
61%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.81
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.29
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.90
BlocksContext
4.63
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
65%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
469
PassesContext
382
387
Accurate passesContext
304
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.97
FoulsContext
10.84
9.87
Fouls sufferedContext
11.26
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
13.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
64%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.80
Shots allowedContext
16.30
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.75
BlocksContext
5.38
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
70%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
468
PassesContext
350
385
Accurate passesContext
274
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.30
FoulsContext
10.10
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km956 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel543 km816 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 543 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 956 km | 816 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
2O. Deman
14S. Lynen
18Cameron Puertas
3Y. Sugawara
20R. Schmid
6J. Stage
19J. Milošević
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.73
FC Augsburg · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-9
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 3–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Union Berlin | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 31 of 90 · 1.03 per game | 36 of 90 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins2 draws3 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.00
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 43%
- 20 Dec 2025FC Augsburg0–0Werder Bremen
- 19 Jan 2025Werder Bremen0–2FC Augsburg
- 24 Aug 2024FC Augsburg2–2Werder Bremen
- 27 Apr 2024FC Augsburg0–3Werder Bremen
- 9 Dec 2023Werder Bremen2–0FC Augsburg
- 4 Mar 2023FC Augsburg2–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.03 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 58% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 61% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 10.71 | 9.96 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 17/24 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 17/24 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 12/24 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.29 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 17/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 12/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 12.00 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 3.71
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 20.3
Penalties0.28league 0.37
Home wins43%league 44%
Werder Bremen4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Jan 26A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- W5 Apr 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–03
- W16 Feb 24A · 1.FC Köln1–04
- W28 Jan 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–13
FC Augsburg7 with this referee
Record1-1-5
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L25 Oct 25H · RB Leipzig0–63
- L28 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–42
- L20 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart0–34
- L27 Aug 23A · Bayern München1–32
- D8 Oct 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen31 games · scored 36 · conceded 54
2
7
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
7
13
61-75
14
11
76-90
FC Augsburg31 games · scored 39 · conceded 55
6
7
0-15
4
10
16-30
7
12
31-45
9
10
46-60
3
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
