Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Werder Bremen
12th · 32 pts · 31 played
WLLWD
1–3Full time
FC Augsburg
9th · 37 pts · 31 played
LDDWD
Werder Bremen47.7%fair odds 2.10
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.15
FC Augsburg28.2%fair odds 3.55
Expected goals1.81 – 1.35total 3.15
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Werder Bremen ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Werder Bremen goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.13
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 1–07.2%13.95
- 1–27.0%14.28
- 2–07.0%14.35
- 2–26.3%15.82
- 3–15.6%17.71
- 0–15.2%19.20
- 0–04.8%20.71
- 3–04.2%23.85
Winning margin
11.9%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 8.43
14.6%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 6.83
21.2%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 4.71
24.1%
Draw
fair 4.15
15.7%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 6.37
8.2%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 12.27
4.3%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 23.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Werder Bremen goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
FC Augsburg goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen win | 47.7% | 46.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.0% | -0.9 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 28.2% | 28.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 57.2% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.4% | 59.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.81 | 1.69 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.35 | 1.29 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Werder Bremen win47.7%2.10
- Draw24.1%4.15
- FC Augsburg win28.2%3.55
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw71.8%1.39
- Double chance Werder Bremen or FC Augsburg75.9%1.32
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw52.3%1.91
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen62.9%1.59
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg37.1%2.69
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.8%1.21
- Over 2.561.0%1.64
- Over 3.538.7%2.59
- Over 4.521.1%4.74
- Under 1.517.2%5.81
- Under 2.539.0%2.56
- Under 3.561.3%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes62.4%1.60
- No37.6%2.66
- Yes and over 2.551.4%1.94
- Werder Bremen win and yes26.6%3.77
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- FC Augsburg win and yes16.6%6.04
Team goals
- Werder Bremen over 0.583.6%1.20
- Werder Bremen over 1.553.9%1.86
- Werder Bremen over 2.527.1%3.69
- FC Augsburg over 0.574.0%1.35
- FC Augsburg over 1.539.0%2.57
- FC Augsburg over 2.515.4%6.50
- Werder Bremen clean sheet26.0%3.85
- FC Augsburg clean sheet16.4%6.08
- Werder Bremen win to nil21.2%4.72
- FC Augsburg win to nil11.6%8.61
Handicap
- Werder Bremen −1.526.5%3.77
- Werder Bremen −2.511.9%8.43
- FC Augsburg +1.573.5%1.36
- FC Augsburg +2.588.1%1.13
- FC Augsburg −1.512.5%8.01
- Werder Bremen +1.587.5%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored279
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right61.3%
BTTS called right58.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.2% | 35.1% |
| 40–50% | 88 | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 55.1% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 42 | 64.8% | 69.0% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 232 of 279 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5503 | 0.5484 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 56.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 232 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 0536·27·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 279 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.