Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Augsburg. Werder Bremen had 6.9 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 543 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel543 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen33%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg43%
Werder Bremen38%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg36%
Werder Bremen35%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg41%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg50%
Werder Bremen33%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg43%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
20°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 67%
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 81
Team strength
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
56
AttackIn forecast
72
45
DefenceIn forecast
23
53
Form indexContext
75
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenFC Augsburg
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+1.01
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.67
ShotsContext
16.33
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.33
43%
On target shareContext
51%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
62%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
17.67
Shots allowedContext
21.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
6.67
BlocksContext
6.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
56%
Save rateContext
78%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
416
PassesContext
377
347
Accurate passesContext
292
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.31
13.67
FoulsContext
8.00
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
38%
On target shareContext
40%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
55%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.14
16.10
Shots allowedContext
18.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
5.30
BlocksContext
5.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
68%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
430
PassesContext
335
354
Accurate passesContext
258
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.60
FoulsContext
8.30
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
LWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 4 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 543 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 540 km | 504 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
17M. Grüll
44Y. Regeer
15L. Reis
13Arthur
20Chuky
10N. Füllkrug
18E. Dinkçi
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
16Hennes Behrens
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
27M. Wolf
10M. Kömür
19Robin Fellhauer
11M. Gregoritsch
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-1.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Augsburg · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins2 draws4 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 38%
- 2 May 2026Werder Bremen1–3FC Augsburg
- 20 Dec 2025FC Augsburg0–0Werder Bremen
- 19 Jan 2025Werder Bremen0–2FC Augsburg
- 24 Aug 2024FC Augsburg2–2Werder Bremen
- 27 Apr 2024FC Augsburg0–3Werder Bremen
- 9 Dec 2023Werder Bremen2–0FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 8.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 14.34 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.78 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 11.80 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.37league 3.18
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+31%league 18%
Fouls23.0league 22.4
Penalties0.23league 0.14
Home wins44%league 54%
Werder Bremen12 with this referee
Record1-2-9
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds3
- L16 May 26H · Borussia Dortmund0–20
- L14 Feb 26H · Bayern München0–33
- D29 Nov 25H · 1.FC Köln1–12
- D10 May 25H · RB Leipzig0–01
- L3 Nov 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–44
FC Augsburg7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 0.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L14 Mar 26A · Borussia Dortmund0–20
- D7 Dec 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
- L19 Oct 24A · SC Freiburg1–31
- W25 Feb 24H · SC Freiburg2–13
- L6 Aug 22H · SC Freiburg0–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
FC Augsburg3 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
