Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 51). Werder Bremen had 5.9 days of rest, SC Freiburg 7 and had to travel 569 km.
Away travel569 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen48%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg27%
Werder Bremen47%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
Werder Bremen48%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg27%
Werder Bremen40%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg34%
Werder Bremen47%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 21
Team strength
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
56
AttackIn forecast
63
45
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenSC Freiburg
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+1.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.67
ShotsContext
14.00
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
49%
On target shareContext
29%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
61%
Box shareContext
71%
23%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.67
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.67
BlocksContext
3.67
1.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
33%
Save rateContext
39%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
437
PassesContext
448
360
Accurate passesContext
366
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.67
FoulsContext
10.00
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
12.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
39%
On target shareContext
31%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
72%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.90
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.30
BlocksContext
4.11
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
72%
Save rateContext
51%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
450
PassesContext
410
365
Accurate passesContext
332
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.00
FoulsContext
10.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km530 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel569 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 569 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 530 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
27F. Agu
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
3Y. Sugawara
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
11J. Njinmah
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
17M. Grüll
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
SC Freiburg · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins0 draws5 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 21 Feb 2025SC Freiburg5–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Oct 2024Werder Bremen0–1SC Freiburg
- 27 Jan 2024Werder Bremen3–1SC Freiburg
- 26 Aug 2023SC Freiburg1–0Werder Bremen
- 16 Apr 2023Werder Bremen1–2SC Freiburg
- 22 Oct 2022SC Freiburg2–0Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.33 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.33 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.67 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.67 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 7.70 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 4.25
Red cards0.33league 0.36
Cards 5+43%league 50%
Fouls20.9league 23.0
Penalties0.33league 0.50
Home wins43%league 43%
Werder Bremen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L15 Mar 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–41
- D4 May 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–20
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L28 Sep 24H · FC St. Pauli0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen3 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
SC Freiburg3 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
4
1
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
