West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. West Ham had 8.1 days of rest, Arsenal 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
West Ham21%
Draw25%
Arsenal54%
West Ham15%
Draw22%
Arsenal63%
West Ham20%
Draw25%
Arsenal55%
West Ham16%
Draw22%
Arsenal62%
West Ham21%
Draw26%
Arsenal53%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 163
Team strength
West Ham
Arsenal
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
68
AttackIn forecast
86
64
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamArsenal
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
66%
Scored inContext
91%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
49%
10.40
ShotsContext
14.49
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.58
Shots in the boxContext
10.66
70%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.94
Shots allowedContext
8.23
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
4.52
BlocksContext
3.23
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
69%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
370
PassesContext
468
292
Accurate passesContext
393
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.00
FoulsContext
10.29
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.86
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.40
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
32%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
75%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.44
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
4.30
BlocksContext
3.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
72%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
355
PassesContext
446
277
Accurate passesContext
381
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.80
FoulsContext
9.50
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
25J. Todibo
12E. Diouf
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
4B. White
49M. Lewis-Skelly
41D. Rice
19L. Trossard
10E. Eze
7B. Saka
14V. Gyökeres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arsenal-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
1.12points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-8
- Scored
- 1.41
- Conceded
- 1.71
Arsenal · Away
1.88points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-3
- Scored
- 1.59
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Everton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Wolves | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–2 AL 2–3 H | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Fulham | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 4–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Points | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game | 73 of 102 · 2.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 West Ham wins2 draws6 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.50
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 4 Oct 2025Arsenal2–0West Ham
- 22 Feb 2025Arsenal0–1West Ham
- 30 Nov 2024West Ham2–5Arsenal
- 11 Feb 2024West Ham0–6Arsenal
- 28 Dec 2023Arsenal0–2West Ham
- 16 Apr 2023West Ham2–2Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.66 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 54% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 49% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 49% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 9% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| West Ham | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.18 | 5.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.15 | 3.52 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 9.43 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 25/34 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 23/34 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 21/34 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 3.77 | 3.20 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 19/35 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 10/35 | 20% 7/35 | |
| West Ham | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 10.00 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.30 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 163 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.20
Home wins40%league 42%
West Ham14 with this referee
Record4-4-6
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- L27 Dec 25H · Fulham0–11
- D16 Dec 24A · Bournemouth1–12
- W17 Dec 23H · Wolves3–03
- L24 Sep 23A · Liverpool1–32
- L26 Apr 23H · Liverpool1–20
Arsenal18 with this referee
Record10-5-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W4 Mar 26A · Brighton1–01
- W3 Jan 26A · Bournemouth3–21
- W1 Nov 25A · Burnley2–01
- L31 Aug 25A · Liverpool0–12
- W20 Apr 25A · Ipswich4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham35 games · scored 42 · conceded 61
9
10
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
11
31-45
4
10
46-60
6
13
61-75
11
14
76-90
Arsenal35 games · scored 67 · conceded 26
8
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
14
6
31-45
14
3
46-60
10
5
61-75
15
8
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
