West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
West Ham were slight favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. West Ham had 4.8 days of rest, Everton 6 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days4.8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
West Ham43%
Draw26%
Everton32%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Everton36%
West Ham42%
Draw26%
Everton32%
West Ham35%
Draw26%
Everton39%
West Ham42%
Draw26%
Everton31%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 138
Team strength
West Ham
Everton
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
68
AttackIn forecast
61
64
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamEverton
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
67%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.33
ShotsContext
11.03
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.53
70%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.09
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
4.55
BlocksContext
4.42
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
69%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
371
PassesContext
384
293
Accurate passesContext
306
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.03
FoulsContext
10.30
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
11.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
43%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
72%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.20
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.70
BlocksContext
4.10
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
62%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
355
PassesContext
403
275
Accurate passesContext
323
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.00
FoulsContext
10.20
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Apr | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 560 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
19Pablo
11V. Castellanos
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
27I. Gueye
10I. Ndiaye
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
7D. McNeil
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Everton-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
1.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.75
Everton · Away
1.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Wolves | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–2 AL 2–3 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 32 of 96 · 1.00 per game | 46 of 96 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 West Ham wins3 draws3 Everton wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.70
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 29 Sep 2025Everton1–1West Ham
- 15 Mar 2025Everton1–1West Ham
- 9 Nov 2024West Ham0–0Everton
- 2 Mar 2024Everton1–3West Ham
- 29 Oct 2023West Ham0–1Everton
- 21 Jan 2023West Ham2–0Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.39 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 39% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 27% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| West Ham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.34 | 5.12 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 9.33 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 25/32 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 72% 23/32 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 66% 21/32 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.52 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 17/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 9/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| West Ham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 9.20 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 138 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.75
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 38%
Fouls21.1league 21.5
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins47%league 42%
West Ham13 with this referee
Record3-2-8
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L24 Oct 25A · Leeds1–23
- L3 Feb 25A · Chelsea1–21
- D9 Nov 24H · Everton0–01
- L14 Apr 24H · Fulham0–21
- L29 Oct 23H · Everton0–14
Everton19 with this referee
Record7-2-10
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W28 Feb 26A · Newcastle3–23
- W7 Feb 26A · Fulham2–15
- W24 Aug 25H · Brighton2–04
- D8 Mar 25A · Wolves1–12
- D9 Nov 24A · West Ham0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham33 games · scored 40 · conceded 57
9
9
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
11
31-45
3
9
46-60
6
13
61-75
10
12
76-90
Everton33 games · scored 40 · conceded 39
3
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
7
5
31-45
6
5
46-60
4
7
61-75
13
9
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
