Wolves vs Manchester City – 16 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 17:30 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves

0–4Full time

Manchester City

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 56). Manchester City usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Wolves had ? days of rest, Manchester City ? and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Wolves21%

Draw23%

Manchester City57%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.97

Wolves21%

Draw25%

Manchester City54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.76

Wolves20%

Draw23%

Manchester City57%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.96

Wolves15%

Draw20%

Manchester City64%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.21

Wolves21%

Draw25%

Manchester City54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.77

Over 2.5 60% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 85

Team strength

Wolves

Manchester City

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

41 AttackIn forecast 92

46 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Manchester City

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.90 ShotsContext 15.20

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 34%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

61% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.57

9.80 Shots allowedContext 8.10

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

2.22 BlocksContext 2.63

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.86

70% Save rateContext 72%

48% PossessionIn forecast 64%

438 PassesContext 609

370 Accurate passesContext 545

84% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.22

11.60 FoulsContext 8.20

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester City

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel100 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1José Sá(G)

24Toti Gomes 12E. Agbadou 2M. Doherty

6D. Møller Wolfe 8João Gomes 7André 26K. Hoever

27J. Bellegarde 9J. Strand Larsen 5M. Munetsi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1J. Trafford(G)

21R. Aït-Nouri 3Rúben Dias 5J. Stones 82R. Lewis

20Bernardo Silva 14Nico González 4T. Reijnders

11J. Doku 9E. Haaland 52O. Bobb

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Manchester City+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home No home games yet this season.

Manchester City · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Wolves wins0 draws9 Manchester City wins

Goals per game0.70 – 2.80 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

2 May 2025Manchester City1–0Wolves
20 Oct 2024Wolves1–2Manchester City
4 May 2024Manchester City5–1Wolves
30 Sep 2023Wolves2–1Manchester City
22 Jan 2023Manchester City3–0Wolves
17 Sep 2022Wolves0–3Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	60%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Wolves	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	60%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.40
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.60
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Wolves	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.67
Corners conceded	4.00	2.78
Match total	8.00	8.45	10.40
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.30
Opponent cards	1.50	2.80
Match total	3.10	4.10	2.60
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 2.40

Red cards0.11league 0.20

Cards 5+38%league 20%

Fouls20.1league 22.4

Penalties0.20league 0.20

Home wins41%league 60%

Wolves5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L17 Aug 24A · Arsenal0–22
L1 Feb 24H · Manchester United3–42
W5 Dec 23H · Burnley1–02
W11 Feb 23A · Southampton2–14
D4 Jan 23A · Aston Villa1–13

Manchester City8 with this referee

Record6-2-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.9 Pens for · against0 · 1

W12 Apr 25H · Crystal Palace5–22
W26 Feb 25A · Tottenham1–00
D28 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–14
W25 Apr 24A · Brighton4–00
W24 Feb 24A · Bournemouth1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.