Wolves vs Tottenham – 25 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, Apr 25 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 17 pts · 33 played WWDLL

0–1Full time

Tottenham 18th · 31 pts · 33 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tottenham were slight favourites.

Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Tottenham. Wolves had 7 days of rest, Tottenham 6.9 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Wolves32%

Draw24%

Tottenham43%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.72

Wolves36%

Draw27%

Tottenham37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Wolves32%

Draw25%

Tottenham42%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.64

Wolves25%

Draw23%

Tottenham51%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.93

Wolves32%

Draw25%

Tottenham43%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.66

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Wolves

Tottenham

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

41 AttackIn forecast 56

46 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Tottenham

0.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.85 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.61

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

48% Scored inContext 79%

12% Clean sheetsContext 21%

9.27 ShotsContext 11.21

3.31 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.97

35% On target shareContext 35%

6.03 Shots in the boxContext 7.91

62% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.81

14.06 Shots allowedContext 12.76

4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.24

4.50 BlocksContext 3.53

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

63% Save rateContext 64%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

374 PassesContext 407

299 Accurate passesContext 330

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.12 FoulsContext 11.82

10.91 Fouls sufferedContext 10.03

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 2.48

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

2.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

50% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.90 ShotsContext 12.40

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

36% On target shareContext 41%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

59% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.29

16.10 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.33 BlocksContext 4.70

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

64% Save rateContext 51%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

363 PassesContext 366

289 Accurate passesContext 290

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.80 FoulsContext 14.20

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km280 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel182 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	280 km	774 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

24Toti Gomes 4S. Bueno 2M. Doherty

3Hugo Bueno 7André 8João Gomes 17Pedro Lima

36Mateus Mané 21R. Gomes

9A. Armstrong

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 4K. Danso 23Pedro Porro

8Y. Bissouma 30R. Bentancur

7X. Simons 22C. Gallagher 39R. Kolo Muani

19D. Solanke

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves-0.1 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Tottenham+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.75points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-10
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.94

Tottenham · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-6
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Tottenham
Leeds	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	W 2–1 A
West Ham	L 0–4 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A
Brentford	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Aston Villa	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–3 HW 1–0 A
Arsenal	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–4 HL 1–4 A
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A
Chelsea	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Bournemouth	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	W 3–0 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Brighton	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Points	16 of 96 · 0.50 per game	30 of 96 · 0.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Wolves wins2 draws3 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.10 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 30%

27 Sep 2025Tottenham1–1Wolves
13 Apr 2025Wolves4–2Tottenham
29 Dec 2024Tottenham2–2Wolves
17 Feb 2024Tottenham1–2Wolves
11 Nov 2023Wolves2–1Tottenham
4 Mar 2023Wolves1–0Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.73	1.27
Conceded per game	1.85	1.61
Match goals	2.58	2.88	3.18
Over 1.5	79%	85%
Over 2.5	48%	67%	62%
Over 3.5	27%	30%
Both teams scored	42%	61%	64%
Clean sheets	12%	21%
Failed to score	52%	21%
Games	33	33

	Wolves	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	2.20
Match goals	2.70	3.10	3.18
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.43	5.61
Corners conceded	6.13	4.71
Match total	9.56	10.32	10.06
Over 8.5	70% 21/30	58% 18/31
Over 9.5	63% 19/30	52% 16/31
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	45% 14/31
Cards
Cards	2.24	2.61
Opponent cards	1.64	1.79
Match total	3.88	4.40	3.88
Over 3.5	58% 19/33	67% 22/33
Over 4.5	39% 13/33	55% 18/33

	Wolves	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	5.60
Corners conceded	5.56	4.90
Match total	8.78	10.50	10.06
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	4.30	4.60	3.88
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 3.75

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls21.1league 21.5

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins36%league 42%

Wolves13 with this referee

Record3-3-7 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L22 Nov 25H · Crystal Palace0–22
L20 Sep 25H · Leeds1–31
W13 Apr 25H · Tottenham4–21
W22 Dec 24A · Leicester3–00
D2 Nov 24H · Crystal Palace2–21

Tottenham16 with this referee

Record8-3-5 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 5 Reds1

L10 Feb 26H · Newcastle1–23
L13 Apr 25A · Wolves2–42
L8 Dec 24H · Chelsea3–42
W24 Aug 24H · Everton4–00
L17 Feb 24H · Wolves1–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.