Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
12th · 26 pts · 23 played
LLWLL
First leg2–2
1–0Full time
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 23 played
LDWDL
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Dender. Zulte Waregem had 6.9 days of rest, Dender 6 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Zulte Waregem43%
Draw27%
Dender30%
Zulte Waregem48%
Draw26%
Dender26%
Zulte Waregem43%
Draw27%
Dender30%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw27%
Dender37%
Zulte Waregem43%
Draw26%
Dender31%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Letellier
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Zulte WaregemDender
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
27
AttackIn forecast
15
31
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemDender
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
74%
Scored inContext
61%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.30
ShotsContext
10.35
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.39
66%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.21
13.04
Shots allowedContext
13.83
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.43
BlocksContext
3.52
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
394
PassesContext
381
319
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.52
FoulsContext
10.96
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
66%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.33
BlocksContext
2.88
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
67%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
367
328
Accurate passesContext
271
80%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.90
FoulsContext
11.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel45 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 39 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
19Benoit Nyssen
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
17N. Mbamba
24M. Viltard
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
27A. Jahanbakhsh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.27
Dender · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Standard Liege | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Gent | W 4–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 25 of 66 · 1.14 per game | 16 of 66 · 0.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Zulte Waregem wins1 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Nov 2025Dender2–2Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 2.35 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 39% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Zulte Waregem | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 8.32 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 14% 3/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.35 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.44 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 8.55 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Letellier 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.85
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+0%league 41%
Fouls20.5league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.28
Home wins50%league 40%
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Oct 25A · KVC Westerlo1–12
- D28 Sep 25H · RAAL La Louvière0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem23 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
3
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
Dender23 games · scored 18 · conceded 36
4
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
