1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim35.4%fair odds 2.83
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.76
FC Augsburg38.0%fair odds 2.63
Expected goals1.37 – 1.43total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 1–28.5%11.75
- 2–18.2%12.25
- 0–18.1%12.34
- 1–07.7%12.91
- 0–06.8%14.79
- 0–26.2%16.07
- 2–25.8%17.20
- 2–05.7%17.46
- 1–34.0%24.74
Winning margin
5.9%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 17.00
10.5%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 9.54
19.0%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 5.25
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.76
19.9%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 5.03
11.4%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 8.78
6.8%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 14.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
FC Augsburg goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 35.4% | 35.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.2% | -0.6 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 38.0% | 37.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 50.3% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 55.3% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.37 | 1.32 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.43 | 1.37 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win35.4%2.83
- Draw26.6%3.76
- FC Augsburg win38.0%2.63
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw62.0%1.61
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or FC Augsburg73.4%1.36
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw64.6%1.55
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim48.2%2.07
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg51.8%1.93
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.62
- Under 1.522.6%4.42
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.34
- Yes and over 2.544.7%2.24
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes18.1%5.52
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- FC Augsburg win and yes19.3%5.18
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.574.5%1.34
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.539.7%2.52
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.515.9%6.31
- FC Augsburg over 0.576.0%1.32
- FC Augsburg over 1.541.7%2.40
- FC Augsburg over 2.517.3%5.79
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet24.0%4.16
- FC Augsburg clean sheet25.5%3.92
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil17.3%5.79
- FC Augsburg win to nil18.7%5.34
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.516.4%6.11
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.55.9%17.00
- FC Augsburg +1.583.6%1.20
- FC Augsburg +2.594.1%1.06
- FC Augsburg −1.518.2%5.50
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.581.8%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won48.6%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.578
Over 2.5 called right70.3%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.1% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.3% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5196 | 0.5003 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.6% | 63.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Bayern München 4–0 Werder Bremen78·14·8
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg68·19·13
- ✗Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach72·17·11
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 3–4 Union Berlin66·20·14
- ✓RB Leipzig 3–1 1.FC Köln58·23·19
- ✓Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim45·26·28
- ✓FC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 0537·26·37
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern München12·18·70
- ✗Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg48·25·27
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 2–0 FC St. Pauli63·21·16
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.