1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg38%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg37%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg38%
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg46%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 40
Team strength
1. FC Heidenheim
FC Augsburg
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
48
AttackIn forecast
72
39
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimFC Augsburg
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
2.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
-0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.99
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
58%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.75
17.50
Shots allowedContext
14.75
6.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.75
BlocksContext
4.25
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
70%
Save rateContext
70%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
319
PassesContext
381
250
Accurate passesContext
307
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.25
FoulsContext
14.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.90
ShotsContext
13.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
34%
On target shareContext
30%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
55%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.11
BlocksContext
3.89
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
65%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
378
PassesContext
421
307
Accurate passesContext
348
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.10
FoulsContext
9.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 1,159 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
30N. Dorsch
16J. Niehues
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
29M. Kaufmann
31S. Conteh
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
5C. Matsima
19Robin Fellhauer
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
27M. Wolf
9S. Essende
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
FC Augsburg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 1. FC Heidenheim wins0 draws3 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.75 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 25 Jan 2025FC Augsburg2–11. FC Heidenheim
- 1 Sep 20241. FC Heidenheim4–0FC Augsburg
- 9 Mar 2024FC Augsburg1–01. FC Heidenheim
- 22 Oct 20231. FC Heidenheim2–5FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.25 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.25 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.50 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.25 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.76 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.70 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 4.22
Red cards0.18league 0.32
Cards 5+35%league 49%
Fouls23.4league 22.5
Penalties0.28league 0.54
Home wins48%league 43%
1. FC Heidenheim5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L17 May 25H · Werder Bremen1–42
- W25 Apr 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–04
- W18 May 24H · 1.FC Köln4–11
- L20 Apr 24H · RB Leipzig1–23
- D27 Jan 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–10
FC Augsburg7 with this referee
Record1-0-6
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L21 Dec 24A · Holstein Kiel1–54
- W26 Oct 24H · Borussia Dortmund2–13
- L27 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen0–31
- L21 May 23H · Borussia Dortmund0–34
- L27 Aug 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim4 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
FC Augsburg4 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
