Bundesliga Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 27 · 14:30 Cologne Stadium, Köln
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Eintracht Frankfurt 11th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel153 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
1.FC Köln—%
Draw—%
Eintracht Frankfurt—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Köln)

Forecast from 12 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1.FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1.FC KölnEintracht Frankfurt
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 48
36 AttackIn forecast 54
36 DefenceIn forecast 37
26 Form indexContext 52
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC KölnEintracht Frankfurt
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.67
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
83% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 17%
16.33 ShotsContext 14.67
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
33% On target shareContext 40%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
71% Box shareContext 78%
8% ConversionContext 11%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.67 Shots allowedContext 17.50
6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.83 BlocksContext 5.00
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
71% Save rateContext 67%
48% PossessionIn forecast 51%
417 PassesContext 436
344 Accurate passesContext 353
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.76 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.17 FoulsContext 10.33
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
90% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
15.30 ShotsContext 14.10
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
35% On target shareContext 41%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
73% Box shareContext 68%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.17 OffsidesContext 2.22
14.50 Shots allowedContext 15.70
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40
3.80 BlocksContext 4.44
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
60% Save rateContext 66%
47% PossessionIn forecast 53%
414 PassesContext 449
343 Accurate passesContext 370
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.69 Team ratingContext 6.78
9.80 FoulsContext 10.80
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel153 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · 1.FC Köln1–01.8 xPts
  • L10 OctA · RB Leipzig0–60.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · SC Freiburg2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · FSV Mainz 053–10.9 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FC Augsburg1–41.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1.FC Köln Eintracht Frankfurt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways90 km487 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter
Eintracht Frankfurt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1.FC Köln (H) 1–0, 16 Oct
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi 3L. Brassier 4R. Koch 34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi 27M. Götze 25R. Onyedika 20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib 9J. Burkardt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Eintracht Frankfurt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 1.FC Köln wins4 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.11 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 11%
  • 16 Oct 2026Eintracht Frankfurt1–01.FC Köln
  • 5 Apr 2026Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.FC Köln
  • 22 Nov 20251.FC Köln3–4Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 3 Feb 20241.FC Köln2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 3 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
  • 12 Feb 20231.FC Köln3–0Eintracht Frankfurt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1.FC KölnEintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 1.331.67
Conceded per game 1.832.67
Match goals 3.174.33
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 33%83%
Both teams scored 83%67%
Clean sheets 0%17%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
1.FC KölnEintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 1.301.60
Conceded per game 2.302.40
Match goals 3.604.00
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 90%80%
Clean sheets 0%10%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1.FC KölnEintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.33
Corners conceded6.334.00
Match total12.339.3310.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.583% 5/633% 2/6
Over 10.567% 4/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.832.33
Opponent cards1.671.33
Match total3.503.663.51
Over 3.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 4.50% 0/617% 1/6
1.FC KölnEintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.785.60
Corners conceded5.444.80
Match total11.2210.4010.72
Over 8.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 9.578% 7/950% 5/10
Over 10.544% 4/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.802.40
Opponent cards1.701.60
Match total3.504.003.51
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt6 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5 3 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
6 4 0-15
16-30
2 7 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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