Bundesliga Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 27 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Schalke 04 15th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel189 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FSV Mainz 05—%
Draw—%
FC Schalke 04—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 12 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FSV Mainz 05 and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
55 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
68 AttackIn forecast 33
56 DefenceIn forecast 50
70 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Schalke 04

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04
2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17
2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
83% Scored inContext 33%
50% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.83 ShotsContext 10.17
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
34% On target shareContext 34%
13.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
76% Box shareContext 72%
13% ConversionContext 7%
2.40 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.17
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.17
4.17 BlocksContext 4.50
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.17
57% Save rateContext 84%
51% PossessionIn forecast 40%
446 PassesContext 349
357 Accurate passesContext 243
80% Pass accuracyContext 70%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.85
13.83 FoulsContext 9.33
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
90% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
17.10 ShotsContext 11.00
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
36% On target shareContext 36%
12.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.67
75% Box shareContext 75%
13% ConversionContext 8%
2.22 OffsidesContext 2.63
12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.70
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.30 BlocksContext 3.40
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
58% Save rateContext 79%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
420 PassesContext 380
337 Accurate passesContext 278
80% Pass accuracyContext 73%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.84
12.80 FoulsContext 8.90
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts
FC Schalke 04
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel189 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · FSV Mainz 050–11.4 xPts
  • L11 OctA · SC Freiburg1–20.8 xPts
  • D20 SepH · SV Elversberg0–01.7 xPts
  • W11 SepA · Union Berlin3–11.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bayern München0–00.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FSV Mainz 05 FC Schalke 04
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km189 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways297 km487 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker
FC Schalke 04 Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs FSV Mainz 05 (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay 25N. Katić 5T. Becker
8R. Gosens 13Satoshi Tanaka 23S. El-Faouzi 17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche 19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Schalke 04 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33
FC Schalke 04 · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 FSV Mainz 05 wins0 draws2 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 17 Oct 2026FC Schalke 040–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 5 May 2023FSV Mainz 052–3FC Schalke 04
  • 9 Nov 2022FC Schalke 041–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 2.330.67
Conceded per game 1.671.17
Match goals 4.001.83
Over 1.5 67%50%
Over 2.5 67%50%
Over 3.5 67%17%
Both teams scored 50%33%
Clean sheets 50%33%
Failed to score 17%67%
Games66
FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 2.200.67
Conceded per game 1.801.17
Match goals 4.001.83
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 70%50%
Over 3.5 60%17%
Both teams scored 60%33%
Clean sheets 40%33%
Failed to score 10%67%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won4.833.60
Corners conceded4.005.40
Match total8.839.0010.72
Over 8.567% 4/660% 3/5
Over 9.533% 2/620% 1/5
Over 10.517% 1/620% 1/5
Cards
Cards2.331.00
Opponent cards2.002.17
Match total4.333.173.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won4.803.44
Corners conceded4.904.89
Match total9.708.3310.72
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.540% 4/1022% 2/9
Over 10.530% 3/1011% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.901.20
Opponent cards1.901.90
Match total3.803.103.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 4 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg Bayer Leverkusen Feb 2714:30 FSV Mainz 05 FC Schalke 04 Feb 2714:30 Borussia Dortmund Union Berlin Feb 2714:30 1899 Hoffenheim Borussia Mönchengladbach Feb 2714:30 FC Augsburg SV Elversberg Feb 2714:30 VfB Stuttgart Hamburger SV Feb 2714:30 RB Leipzig Bayern München Feb 2714:30 SC Paderborn 07 Werder Bremen Feb 2714:30 1.FC Köln Eintracht Frankfurt Feb 2714:30