Bundesliga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 18:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln
1.FC Köln 7th · 3 pts · 1 played
4–1Full time
SC Freiburg 17th · 0 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 38). 1.FC Köln had 7.2 days of rest, SC Freiburg 8.2 and had to travel 333 km.

Away travel333 kmRest days7.2 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln36%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg38%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.47
1.FC Köln35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36
1.FC Köln36%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg38%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.47
1.FC Köln29%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg46%
Expected goals 1.27 – 1.65
1.FC Köln35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36
Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.30
  • Matches 43

Team strength

1.FC KölnSC Freiburg
38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
36 AttackIn forecast 63
36 DefenceIn forecast 73
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC KölnSC Freiburg
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.59
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
— Goals minus xGContext +0.01
70% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.00 ShotsContext 13.00
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
31% On target shareContext 32%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
64% Box shareContext 73%
6% ConversionContext 12%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.44
15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.30
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.67 BlocksContext 3.67
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44
58% Save rateContext 56%
50% PossessionIn forecast 53%
385 PassesContext 427
300 Accurate passesContext 347
78% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.90
13.20 FoulsContext 10.40
10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
SC Freiburg
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel333 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1.FC Köln SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Aug8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km333 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways283 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one12.812.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund 4T. Hübers 33R. van den Berg 28S. Sebulonsen
8D. Huseinbašić 6E. Martel
30M. Bülter 18Í. Jóhannesson 29J. Thielmann
16J. Kamiński
SC Freiburg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi 8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo 14Y. Suzuki 18E. Dinkçi
9L. Höler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1.FC Köln Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • SC Freiburg+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home No home games yet this season.
SC Freiburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 1.FC Köln wins2 draws3 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored17% Clean sheets33% · 67%
  • 4 May 20241.FC Köln0–0SC Freiburg
  • 17 Dec 2023SC Freiburg2–01.FC Köln
  • 29 Apr 20231.FC Köln0–1SC Freiburg
  • 6 Nov 2022SC Freiburg2–01.FC Köln
  • 5 Feb 20221.FC Köln1–0SC Freiburg
  • 11 Sep 2021SC Freiburg1–11.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1.FC KölnSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 0.003.00
Match goals 1.004.00 2.89
Over 1.5 0%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 55%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 0%100% 59%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11
1.FC KölnSC FreiburgForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 0.003.00
Match goals 1.004.00 2.89
Over 1.5 0%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 55%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 0%100% 59%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1.FC KölnSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won3.005.00
Corners conceded7.005.00
Match total10.0010.0010.31
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards2.004.00
Opponent cards2.005.00
Match total4.009.005.31
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.50% 0/1100% 1/1
1.FC KölnSC FreiburgLeague
Corners
Corners won6.103.70
Corners conceded5.703.50
Match total11.807.2010.31
Over 8.580% 8/1030% 3/10
Over 9.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 10.550% 5/1010% 1/10
Cards
Cards2.401.80
Opponent cards1.702.40
Match total4.104.205.31
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 4.94
Red cards0.09league 0.29
Cards 5+40%league 59%
Fouls25.4league 23.5
Penalties0.30league 0.41
Home wins40%league 35%
1.FC Köln2 with this referee
Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L29 Apr 23H · SC Freiburg0–11
  • L15 Oct 21A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–51
SC Freiburg5 with this referee
Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0
  • W8 Feb 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–03
  • D8 Nov 24A · Union Berlin0–00
  • W21 Oct 23H · VfL Bochum2–13
  • W29 Apr 23A · 1.FC Köln1–01
  • D19 Mar 22A · SpVgg Greuther Fürth0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

1.FC Köln1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
SC Freiburg1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
3 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
6 4 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 8 31-45
6 2 46-60
4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Hamburger SV FC St. Pauli 02 Werder Bremen Bayer Leverkusen 33 1899 Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt 13 VfB Stuttgart Borussia Mönchengladbach 10 RB Leipzig 1. FC Heidenheim 20 FC Augsburg Bayern München 23 VfL Wolfsburg FSV Mainz 05 11 Borussia Dortmund Union Berlin 30 1.FC Köln SC Freiburg 41