1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. 1.FC Köln had 6.9 days of rest, Union Berlin 7.8 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln42%
Draw27%
Union Berlin32%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw27%
Union Berlin32%
1.FC Köln42%
Draw27%
Union Berlin32%
1.FC Köln34%
Draw27%
Union Berlin39%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw27%
Union Berlin32%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 63
Team strength
1.FC Köln
Union Berlin
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
36
AttackIn forecast
42
36
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnUnion Berlin
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
86%
Scored inContext
64%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.43
ShotsContext
11.93
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
38%
On target shareContext
31%
7.46
Shots in the boxContext
8.64
60%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.36
OffsidesContext
1.85
13.93
Shots allowedContext
12.57
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
4.21
BlocksContext
3.77
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
68%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
412
PassesContext
301
340
Accurate passesContext
215
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.79
FoulsContext
12.43
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
10.79
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
11.80
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
41%
On target shareContext
29%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
58%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.56
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.90
BlocksContext
3.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
421
PassesContext
315
347
Accurate passesContext
227
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.30
FoulsContext
12.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km22 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel479 km357 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 22 km | 357 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
3D. Heintz
33R. van den Berg
28S. Sebulonsen
6E. Martel
5T. Krauß
16J. Kamiński
18Í. Jóhannesson
29J. Thielmann
9R. Ache
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Union Berlin-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Union Berlin · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | W 4–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | L 2–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 3–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game | 17 of 36 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 1.FC Köln wins2 draws3 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 11 May 20241.FC Köln3–2Union Berlin
- 20 Dec 2023Union Berlin2–01.FC Köln
- 4 Mar 2023Union Berlin0–01.FC Köln
- 11 Sep 20221.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin
- 1 Apr 2022Union Berlin1–01.FC Köln
- 7 Nov 20211.FC Köln2–2Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 64% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| 1.FC Köln | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.54 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 10.62 | 9.77 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.86 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| 1.FC Köln | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.44 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.00 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.91
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+46%league 41%
Fouls23.5league 21.2
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins37%league 47%
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Feb 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–14
- D4 Nov 23H · FC Augsburg1–11
- L12 Nov 22A · Hertha BSC0–21
- W19 Feb 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–01
Union Berlin7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Oct 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- L30 Nov 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–24
- W18 May 24H · SC Freiburg2–17
- L2 Mar 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
- D13 Jan 24A · SC Freiburg0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln14 games · scored 22 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
61-75
11
5
76-90
Union Berlin14 games · scored 19 · conceded 23
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
8
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
