1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1.FC Köln41.7%fair odds 2.40
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Union Berlin31.8%fair odds 3.14
Expected goals1.50 – 1.28total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1.FC Köln ↓ · Union Berlin → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.96
- 2–18.9%11.21
- 1–08.7%11.51
- 1–27.6%13.10
- 0–17.3%13.62
- 2–07.0%14.34
- 0–06.9%14.57
- 2–25.7%17.52
- 0–25.1%19.60
- 3–14.4%22.48
Winning margin
8.1%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 12.39
12.6%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 7.92
21.0%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 4.77
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
17.8%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 5.61
9.2%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 10.82
4.8%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 21.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
1.FC Köln goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
7%4+
Union Berlin goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln win | 41.7% | 40.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Union Berlin win | 31.8% | 32.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 50.5% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 55.2% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.50 | 1.44 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.28 | 1.25 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1.FC Köln win41.7%2.40
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Union Berlin win31.8%3.14
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw68.2%1.47
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or Union Berlin73.5%1.36
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw58.3%1.71
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln56.7%1.76
- Draw no bet Union Berlin43.3%2.31
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.5%1.91
- Over 3.530.3%3.30
- Over 4.514.9%6.73
- Under 1.522.9%4.37
- Under 2.547.5%2.10
- Under 3.569.7%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.31
- Yes and over 2.544.1%2.27
- 1.FC Köln win and yes20.7%4.83
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- Union Berlin win and yes16.3%6.14
Team goals
- 1.FC Köln over 0.577.6%1.29
- 1.FC Köln over 1.544.1%2.27
- 1.FC Köln over 2.519.0%5.26
- Union Berlin over 0.572.2%1.39
- Union Berlin over 1.536.6%2.73
- Union Berlin over 2.513.8%7.23
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet27.8%3.60
- Union Berlin clean sheet22.4%4.46
- 1.FC Köln win to nil20.9%4.77
- Union Berlin win to nil15.5%6.43
Handicap
- 1.FC Köln −1.520.7%4.83
- 1.FC Köln −2.58.1%12.39
- Union Berlin +1.579.3%1.26
- Union Berlin +2.591.9%1.09
- Union Berlin −1.514.0%7.14
- 1.FC Köln +1.586.0%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5408 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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- ✗Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig27·26·48
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.