1.FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart – 28 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 28 · 16:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln

1.FC Köln 6th · 7 pts · 4 played WWDL

1–2Full time

VfB Stuttgart 10th · 6 pts · 4 played LWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 40). Absences weigh more on VfB Stuttgart. 1.FC Köln had 8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.9 and had to travel 288 km.

Away travel288 kmRest days8 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

1.FC Köln32%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart42%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.57

1.FC Köln32%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

1.FC Köln32%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart43%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.59

1.FC Köln26%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart50%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.76

1.FC Köln33%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Köln)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 54

Team strength

1.FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

36 AttackIn forecast 70

36 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC Köln

VfB Stuttgart

2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.76 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

100% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.75 ShotsContext 14.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 36%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

65% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.25 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

5.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

61% Save rateContext 85%

46% PossessionIn forecast 58%

390 PassesContext 507

322 Accurate passesContext 440

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.00 FoulsContext 11.00

10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.10 ShotsContext 16.30

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

34% On target shareContext 34%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

64% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.78

13.80 Shots allowedContext 9.00

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

4.33 BlocksContext 2.60

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

60% Save rateContext 65%

50% PossessionIn forecast 63%

408 PassesContext 586

327 Accurate passesContext 523

80% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.30 FoulsContext 10.70

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km762 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel288 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	288 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	762 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1M. Schwäbe(G)

4T. Hübers 6E. Martel 2Joel Schmied

37L. Maina 16J. Kamiński 5T. Krauß 18Í. Jóhannesson 28S. Sebulonsen

9R. Ache 29J. Thielmann

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 14L. Jaquez 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

10C. Führich 11B. El Khannouss 8Tiago Tomás

9E. Demirović

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1.FC Köln Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

1.FC Köln+0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
VfB Stuttgart-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg	W 4–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 1.FC Köln wins2 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 50%

24 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11.FC Köln
30 Sep 20231.FC Köln0–2VfB Stuttgart
18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart3–01.FC Köln
28 Aug 20221.FC Köln0–0VfB Stuttgart
14 May 2022VfB Stuttgart2–11.FC Köln
19 Dec 20211.FC Köln1–0VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	1.25
Conceded per game	1.75	1.25
Match goals	4.00	2.50	2.93
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	75%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	1.40
Conceded per game	1.75	1.20
Match goals	4.00	2.60	2.93
Over 1.5	75%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	75%	20%
Both teams scored	75%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	6.50
Corners conceded	7.00	6.25
Match total	10.75	12.75	10.22
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.75
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.50	3.75	4.56
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	1.FC Köln	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	6.60
Corners conceded	5.60	4.50
Match total	11.10	11.10	10.22
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.30
Match total	3.80	3.80	4.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 54 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.78league 4.30

Red cards0.19league 0.30

Cards 5+39%league 47%

Fouls23.1league 22.7

Penalties0.30league 0.49

Home wins52%league 40%

1.FC Köln8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L20 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 980–20
D11 Nov 23A · VfL Bochum1–11
L26 Aug 23H · VfL Wolfsburg1–21
D29 Jan 23A · FC Schalke 040–04
L21 Oct 22A · FSV Mainz 050–55

VfB Stuttgart6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W6 Apr 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–04
W22 Sep 23H · SV Darmstadt 983–11
L4 Nov 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–31
L25 Feb 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–22
W26 Nov 21H · FSV Mainz 052–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.