1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 30 pts · 16 played
WLWDW
1–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 29 pts · 16 played
LLWWL
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 56). 1899 Hoffenheim had 2.8 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 6.9 and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen45%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen45%
1899 Hoffenheim23%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen53%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 86
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
46
AttackIn forecast
87
43
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
81%
Scored inContext
88%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.69
ShotsContext
14.13
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
35%
9.07
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
68%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
2.15
OffsidesContext
1.42
11.44
Shots allowedContext
11.38
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.47
BlocksContext
2.77
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
76%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
470
PassesContext
601
380
Accurate passesContext
537
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.44
FoulsContext
9.19
9.44
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.10
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
66%
Box shareContext
69%
20%
ConversionContext
15%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.29
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.78
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
83%
Save rateContext
81%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
498
PassesContext
586
406
Accurate passesContext
526
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.20
FoulsContext
7.80
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
22A. Prass
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
4J. Quansah
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
13Arthur
19E. Poku
10M. Tillman
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-3
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 H | L 0–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 4–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 42 · 1.71 per game | 28 of 42 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.44
Over 2.5100%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets11% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–21899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 14 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 30 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 4 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 11 Feb 20231899 Hoffenheim1–3Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.63 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 69% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 63% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 13% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 10.06 | 9.82 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 3.31 | 5.19 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 3/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.78
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls22.6league 21.1
Penalties0.28league 0.32
Home wins56%league 46%
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 May 25H · Bayern München0–40
- D9 Mar 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–12
- L14 Sep 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–42
- L12 Nov 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–20
- W10 Sep 22H · FSV Mainz 054–13
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4
Pens for · against4 · 0
- W22 Feb 25A · Holstein Kiel2–01
- W14 Sep 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim4–12
- W20 Dec 23H · VfL Bochum4–00
- D15 Sep 23A · Bayern München2–23
- W23 Apr 23H · RB Leipzig2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim16 games · scored 34 · conceded 21
3
4
0-15
7
3
16-30
9
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen16 games · scored 34 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
7
4
16-30
8
9
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
6
16-30
7
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
