1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1899 Hoffenheim28.7%fair odds 3.48
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Eintracht Frankfurt45.7%fair odds 2.19
Expected goals1.25 – 1.63total 2.89
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.32
- 1–29.3%10.72
- 0–18.5%11.75
- 0–27.4%13.43
- 2–17.1%13.99
- 1–06.4%15.68
- 0–06.2%16.18
- 2–25.8%17.12
- 1–35.1%19.68
- 2–04.4%22.87
Winning margin
4.1%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 24.56
8.2%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 12.15
16.4%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 6.09
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
21.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.63
14.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 7.13
10.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 9.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 28.7% | 28.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.7% | -1.1 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 45.7% | 44.5% | +1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 50.6% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 54.7% | +3.4 pp |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.25 | 1.18 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.63 | 1.52 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1899 Hoffenheim win28.7%3.48
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Eintracht Frankfurt win45.7%2.19
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw54.3%1.84
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Eintracht Frankfurt74.4%1.34
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw71.3%1.40
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim38.6%2.59
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt61.4%1.63
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.9%1.27
- Over 2.555.1%1.82
- Over 3.532.7%3.05
- Over 4.516.6%6.02
- Under 1.521.1%4.75
- Under 2.544.9%2.23
- Under 3.567.3%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes15.4%6.49
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes23.3%4.29
Team goals
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.571.4%1.40
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.535.6%2.81
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.513.2%7.57
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.580.5%1.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.548.6%2.06
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.522.6%4.43
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet19.5%5.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet28.6%3.50
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil13.3%7.50
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil22.4%4.46
Handicap
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.512.3%8.13
- 1899 Hoffenheim −2.54.1%24.56
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.587.7%1.14
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.595.9%1.04
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.524.1%4.15
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.575.9%1.32
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored10
Favourite won30.0%
Avg chance given to result31.7%
1X2 Brier0.795
Over 2.5 called right70.0%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 2 | 46.0% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 54.1% | 25.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 66.0% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 10 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 10 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.