1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 23 pts · 13 played
WWDWL
4–1Full time
Hamburger SV
13th · 15 pts · 13 played
LDLWW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 35). 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.9 days of rest, Hamburger SV 6 and had to travel 484 km.
Away travel484 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim57%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV21%
1899 Hoffenheim54%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV21%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV21%
1899 Hoffenheim49%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV27%
1899 Hoffenheim55%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 52
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
46
AttackIn forecast
37
43
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
85%
Scored inContext
54%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
13.15
ShotsContext
12.54
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
34%
On target shareContext
36%
9.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.58
69%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.85
Shots allowedContext
14.31
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.77
BlocksContext
3.83
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
74%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
456
PassesContext
401
367
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.23
FoulsContext
12.62
9.31
Fouls sufferedContext
12.54
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
30%
On target shareContext
37%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
70%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.78
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.67
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
460
PassesContext
412
370
Accurate passesContext
343
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.20
FoulsContext
12.70
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel484 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 484 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 541 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
23J. Meffert
6A. Sambi Lokonga
16G. Gocholeishvili
45F. Balde
11R. Königsdörffer
20Fábio Vieira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.67
Hamburger SV · Away
0.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 H | L 0–5 A |
| Union Berlin | W 4–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 19 of 30 · 1.90 per game | 8 of 30 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 2.62 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 54% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 46% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.31 | 3.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 4.62 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 8.31 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 92% 12/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.31 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 3.23 | 4.92 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 2/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.10 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.10 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.94
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls24.0league 21.3
Penalties0.21league 0.33
Home wins44%league 47%
1899 Hoffenheim4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Nov 24A · FC Augsburg0–03
- L25 Feb 23H · Borussia Dortmund0–13
- L5 Nov 22H · RB Leipzig1–34
- L15 Jan 22A · Union Berlin1–23
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Oct 25H · VfL Wolfsburg0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim13 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Hamburger SV13 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
