1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
5th · 57 pts · 31 played
LLDWW
3–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 57 pts · 31 played
WLWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. 1899 Hoffenheim had 6.9 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 6 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart40%
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart33%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart39%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart48%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart39%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 96
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
46
AttackIn forecast
70
43
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart
1.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.03
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
84%
Scored inContext
90%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
13.61
ShotsContext
14.87
4.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.74
37%
On target shareContext
39%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
69%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.06
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.35
3.38
BlocksContext
3.30
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
69%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
459
PassesContext
518
371
Accurate passesContext
438
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.55
FoulsContext
9.42
8.77
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.10
ShotsContext
15.70
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
35%
On target shareContext
39%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
68%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.67
BlocksContext
2.78
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
60%
Save rateContext
65%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
472
PassesContext
528
382
Accurate passesContext
443
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.70
FoulsContext
9.60
7.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 968 km | 382 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
14L. Jaquez
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
11B. El Khannouss
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.87points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-5
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 1.20
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.40points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-6
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 4–1 H | W 4–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 2–4 AL 0–5 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 56 of 90 · 1.87 per game | 56 of 90 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins5 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.56
Over 2.556%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 20 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–01899 Hoffenheim
- 23 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1VfB Stuttgart
- 6 Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 16 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 28 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 27 May 2023VfB Stuttgart1–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.97 | 2.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 58% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 10% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.48 | 5.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 9.64 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 22/31 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 20/31 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 15/31 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.42 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 19/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 9/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.40 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.71
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 20.3
Penalties0.20league 0.37
Home wins33%league 44%
1899 Hoffenheim9 with this referee
Record1-3-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Nov 25A · FSV Mainz 051–12
- L19 Apr 25A · SC Freiburg2–32
- D26 Jan 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–23
- L2 Nov 24H · FC St. Pauli0–20
- L16 Mar 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–31
VfB Stuttgart7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 3
- D22 Feb 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–31
- W19 Sep 25H · FC St. Pauli2–00
- W15 Jan 25H · RB Leipzig2–12
- W16 Mar 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–00
- L11 Feb 23A · SC Freiburg1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim31 games · scored 61 · conceded 45
4
8
0-15
10
8
16-30
19
7
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
10
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart31 games · scored 63 · conceded 43
4
4
0-15
11
5
16-30
13
11
31-45
8
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
21
16
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
