AC Milan vs Atalanta – 10 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 36 Sun, May 10 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 5th · 67 pts · 35 played LLWDL

2–3Full time

Atalanta 7th · 55 pts · 35 played WLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Atalanta. AC Milan had 7.2 days of rest, Atalanta 8 and had to travel 45 km.

Away travel45 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2

AC Milan38%

Draw29%

Atalanta33%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.16

AC Milan44%

Draw27%

Atalanta29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

AC Milan38%

Draw29%

Atalanta32%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.12

AC Milan31%

Draw29%

Atalanta40%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.30

AC Milan39%

Draw28%

Atalanta34%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.23

Over 2.5 43% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 39

Team strength

AC Milan

Atalanta

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

72 AttackIn forecast 48

69 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Atalanta

1.37 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.34

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

80% Scored inContext 80%

43% Clean sheetsContext 37%

12.66 ShotsContext 14.57

4.24 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.76

33% On target shareContext 31%

8.79 Shots in the boxContext 9.71

67% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.03 OffsidesContext 2.46

10.94 Shots allowedContext 11.37

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.94

3.33 BlocksContext 3.15

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.32

82% Save rateContext 79%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

482 PassesContext 487

423 Accurate passesContext 413

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.80 FoulsContext 10.89

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.06

1.51 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

40% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 14.10

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

24% On target shareContext 31%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

61% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 9%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.63

11.60 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

3.30 BlocksContext 3.60

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

78% Save rateContext 61%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

483 PassesContext 482

424 Accurate passesContext 403

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.30 FoulsContext 9.90

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km283 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel45 km1,441 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May	8Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	283 km	1,441 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.6	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 5K. De Winter

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 4S. Ricci 8R. Loftus-Cheek 56A. Saelemaekers

10Rafael Leão 7S. Giménez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 4I. Hien 42G. Scalvini

59N. Zalewski 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

18G. Raspadori 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Atalanta+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 1.88points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 9-5-3
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 0.94

Atalanta · Away 1.29points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 5-7-5
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.06

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Atalanta
Sassuolo	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H
Juventus	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Verona	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A
Udinese	L 0–3 HW 3–0 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Napoli	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Torino	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Lazio	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Inter	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Cremonese	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Parma	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Como	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Pisa	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Bologna	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Genoa	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 A	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H
Points	66 of 102 · 1.94 per game	54 of 102 · 1.59 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 AC Milan wins3 draws3 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.22 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

28 Oct 2025Atalanta1–1AC Milan
20 Apr 2025AC Milan0–1Atalanta
6 Dec 2024Atalanta2–1AC Milan
25 Feb 2024AC Milan1–1Atalanta
9 Dec 2023Atalanta3–2AC Milan
26 Feb 2023AC Milan2–0Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.37	1.34
Conceded per game	0.83	0.91
Match goals	2.20	2.26	2.41
Over 1.5	63%	74%
Over 2.5	40%	37%	43%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	43%	51%	50%
Clean sheets	43%	37%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	35	35

	AC Milan	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	1.70	2.40	2.41
Over 1.5	40%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	10%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.34	5.94
Corners conceded	4.22	4.18
Match total	8.56	10.12	8.69
Over 8.5	50% 16/32	65% 22/34
Over 9.5	34% 11/32	50% 17/34
Over 10.5	28% 9/32	41% 14/34
Cards
Cards	1.66	1.66
Opponent cards	2.11	1.49
Match total	3.77	3.15	3.86
Over 3.5	54% 19/35	43% 15/35
Over 4.5	31% 11/35	9% 3/35

	AC Milan	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.40
Corners conceded	3.60	3.80
Match total	7.10	9.20	8.69
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.20
Opponent cards	2.30	1.50
Match total	3.80	2.70	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.79league 3.68

Red cards0.10league 0.19

Cards 5+26%league 34%

Fouls23.6league 24.7

Penalties0.31league 0.28

Home wins54%league 39%

AC Milan3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W18 Jan 26H · Lecce1–01
D24 Oct 25H · Pisa2–21
W27 Sep 24H · Lecce3–02

Atalanta2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D4 Oct 25H · Como1–11
W20 Oct 24A · Venezia2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.