AC Milan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AC Milan37.8%fair odds 2.64
Draw29.0%fair odds 3.45
Atalanta33.2%fair odds 3.01
Expected goals1.25 – 1.16total 2.41
Likeliest score1–113.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AC Milan ↓ · Atalanta → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AC Milan goals, columns Atalanta goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.7%7.29
- 1–010.6%9.45
- 0–19.7%10.28
- 0–09.7%10.30
- 2–18.1%12.27
- 1–27.5%13.28
- 2–07.1%14.18
- 0–26.0%16.61
- 2–24.7%21.25
- 3–13.4%29.45
Winning margin
5.7%
AC Milan by 3+
fair 17.40
11.1%
AC Milan by 2
fair 8.99
20.9%
AC Milan by 1
fair 4.77
29.0%
Draw
fair 3.45
19.3%
Atalanta by 1
fair 5.18
9.5%
Atalanta by 2
fair 10.53
4.4%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 22.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
AC Milan goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Atalanta goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 37.8% | 38.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Atalanta win | 33.2% | 33.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.2% | 47.3% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.6% | 52.8% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals AC Milan | 1.25 | 1.34 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 1.16 | 1.23 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AC Milan win37.8%2.64
- Draw29.0%3.45
- Atalanta win33.2%3.01
- Double chance AC Milan or draw66.8%1.50
- Double chance AC Milan or Atalanta71.0%1.41
- Double chance Atalanta or draw62.2%1.61
- Draw no bet AC Milan53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet Atalanta46.8%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.590.3%1.11
- Over 1.570.0%1.43
- Over 2.543.2%2.32
- Over 3.522.3%4.49
- Over 4.59.7%10.35
- Under 1.530.0%3.33
- Under 2.556.8%1.76
- Under 3.577.7%1.29
Both teams to score
- Yes49.6%2.02
- No50.4%1.98
- Yes and over 2.535.9%2.79
- AC Milan win and yes16.0%6.24
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Atalanta win and yes14.3%7.00
Team goals
- AC Milan over 0.571.4%1.40
- AC Milan over 1.535.6%2.81
- AC Milan over 2.513.2%7.60
- Atalanta over 0.568.5%1.46
- Atalanta over 1.532.1%3.11
- Atalanta over 2.511.1%9.01
- AC Milan clean sheet31.5%3.18
- Atalanta clean sheet28.6%3.49
- AC Milan win to nil21.8%4.59
- Atalanta win to nil18.9%5.28
Handicap
- AC Milan −1.516.9%5.93
- AC Milan −2.55.7%17.40
- Atalanta +1.583.1%1.20
- Atalanta +2.594.3%1.06
- Atalanta −1.513.9%7.19
- AC Milan +1.586.1%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored358
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right51.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 55 | 37.8% | 34.5% |
| 40–50% | 119 | 45.0% | 48.7% |
| 50–60% | 88 | 54.5% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 63 | 64.8% | 69.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.3% | 64.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 298 of 358 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5994 | 0.5865 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 298 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 358 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.