AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel693 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
AC Milan—%
Draw—%
Cagliari—%
Weather (Milano)
Forecast from 20 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Cagliari. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Insight
Cagliari
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Cagliari
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against1.82
-
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Cagliari
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Cagliari
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Cagliari
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against1.82
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Cagliari
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AC MilanCagliari
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
72
AttackIn forecast
31
69
DefenceIn forecast
31
74
Form indexContext
72
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanCagliari
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.95
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.29
ShotsContext
10.57
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
38%
On target shareContext
38%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.57
67%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.57
Shots allowedContext
19.57
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
2.67
BlocksContext
4.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
75%
Save rateContext
81%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
583
PassesContext
408
522
Accurate passesContext
345
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.29
FoulsContext
10.43
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.57
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
13.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
69%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.70
Shots allowedContext
17.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.44
BlocksContext
4.10
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
78%
Save rateContext
78%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
556
PassesContext
429
498
Accurate passesContext
365
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.90
FoulsContext
10.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Cagliari
WWWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel693 km1,478 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Feb | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 693 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 78 km | 1,478 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Cagliari
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2Zé Pedro
4Alessandro Romano
6H. Winks
8M. Adopo
70D. Maldini
18M. Nzola
31Paul Mendy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cagliari
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Cagliari · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lecce | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 AC Milan wins2 draws1 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.38 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 24 May 2026AC Milan1–2Cagliari
- 2 Jan 2026Cagliari0–1AC Milan
- 11 Jan 2025AC Milan1–1Cagliari
- 9 Nov 2024Cagliari3–3AC Milan
- 11 May 2024AC Milan5–1Cagliari
- 27 Sep 2023Cagliari1–3AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 6.14 | 10.29 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.14 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 2.43 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| AC Milan | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 10.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cagliari7 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
