AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 51). Absences weigh more on AC Milan. AC Milan had 14 days of rest, Fiorentina 14.2 and had to travel 248 km.
Away travel248 kmRest days14 · 14.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
AC Milan50%
Draw27%
Fiorentina23%
AC Milan53%
Draw25%
Fiorentina22%
AC Milan52%
Draw26%
Fiorentina22%
AC Milan43%
Draw28%
Fiorentina29%
AC Milan52%
Draw25%
Fiorentina23%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 55
Team strength
AC Milan
Fiorentina
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
42
69
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanFiorentina
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
83%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.33
ShotsContext
11.83
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
33%
On target shareContext
20%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
71%
Box shareContext
53%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.60
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.17
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.17
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
79%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
474
PassesContext
384
419
Accurate passesContext
313
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.33
FoulsContext
15.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
17.33
1.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
27%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
69%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.78
BlocksContext
2.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
77%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
484
PassesContext
408
431
Accurate passesContext
339
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.70
FoulsContext
12.30
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km251 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel248 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.2Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 248 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 251 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
4S. Ricci
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
24Z. Athekame
10Rafael Leão
56A. Saelemaekers
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
18Pablo Marí
5M. Pongračić
21R. Gosens
44N. Fagioli
14H. Nicolussi
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
22J. Fazzini
20M. Kean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Fiorentina+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fiorentina · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 AC Milan wins1 draws3 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2025AC Milan2–2Fiorentina
- 6 Oct 2024Fiorentina2–1AC Milan
- 30 Mar 2024Fiorentina1–2AC Milan
- 25 Nov 2023AC Milan1–0Fiorentina
- 4 Mar 2023Fiorentina2–1AC Milan
- 13 Nov 2022AC Milan2–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 8.83 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.16 | 3.17 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 8.67 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.13
Cards 5+40%league 35%
Fouls23.4league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.24
Home wins42%league 37%
AC Milan7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Aug 25A · Lecce2–00
- W9 May 25H · Bologna3–12
- W20 Dec 24A · Verona1–01
- W30 Dec 23H · Sassuolo1–00
- W22 Oct 22H · Monza4–11
Fiorentina7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Apr 25A · Cagliari2–12
- W28 Feb 25H · Lecce1–03
- D19 Jan 25H · Torino1–13
- W6 Nov 22A · Sampdoria2–00
- D28 Aug 22H · Napoli0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan6 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Fiorentina5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
