AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AC Milan. AC Milan had 3.9 days of rest, Parma 7.1 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days3.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
AC Milan71%
Draw19%
Parma10%
AC Milan70%
Draw19%
Parma11%
AC Milan70%
Draw19%
Parma11%
AC Milan64%
Draw22%
Parma14%
AC Milan72%
Draw17%
Parma10%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 50
Team strength
AC Milan
Parma
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
72
AttackIn forecast
20
69
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanParma
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.72
0.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
96%
Scored inContext
52%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.72
ShotsContext
11.24
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
36%
On target shareContext
26%
9.09
Shots in the boxContext
6.74
69%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.68
Shots allowedContext
13.88
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
3.35
BlocksContext
4.17
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
83%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
482
PassesContext
356
423
Accurate passesContext
285
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.60
FoulsContext
10.44
11.52
Fouls sufferedContext
13.76
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
37%
On target shareContext
22%
9.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
72%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.40
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.22
BlocksContext
4.50
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
85%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
491
PassesContext
405
430
Accurate passesContext
337
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.40
FoulsContext
10.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel116 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Feb | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 435 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
33D. Bartesaghi
5K. De Winter
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
8R. Loftus-Cheek
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
10Rafael Leão
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
24C. Ordoñez
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Parma-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
Parma · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| AS Roma | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Verona | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Inter | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 53 of 72 · 2.21 per game | 28 of 72 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 AC Milan wins1 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Parma2–2AC Milan
- 26 Jan 2025AC Milan3–2Parma
- 24 Aug 2024Parma2–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 0.72 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.76 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.96 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 36% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 48% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| AC Milan | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 3.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 8.46 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.72 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 3.96 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 8/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| AC Milan | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.67 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.90 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.77
Red cards0.20league 0.20
Cards 5+42%league 37%
Fouls24.7league 25.4
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins42%league 38%
AC Milan3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L18 May 25A · AS Roma1–34
- L20 Apr 25H · Atalanta0–10
- W7 Oct 23A · Genoa1–06
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L29 Nov 25H · Udinese0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan25 games · scored 41 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
3
31-45
10
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
9
2
76-90
Parma25 games · scored 18 · conceded 31
2
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
8
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
